New Mexico at Nevada - 10/28/23 College Football Picks and Prediction

Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6) vs New Mexico Lobos (3-4)

Game Info: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 10:30 pm (Clarence Mackay Stadium)

Betting Odds: Nevada Wolf Pack -1 -- Over/Under: 51.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The New Mexico Lobos will cross the state line and face the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno this weekend in Mountain West play from Mackay Stadium on CBS Sports. These two bordering states haven’t met since 2020, and Nevada holds the head-to-head lead, 5-3-1, after winning five of the last six games.

New Mexico Lobos Preview

New Mexico comes in at 3-4 after defeating Hawaii in Albuquerque, 42-21. The Lobos got back into the win column with a fast start, and they’ll look to get back to .500 this weekend. The UNM offense is scoring 29.9 ppg, while passing for 188.3 ypg, rushing for 122.9 ypg, and converting 43.2% of their third downs.

UNM Player Notes

• Dylan Hopkins came through with his best start as a Lobo against Hawaii, l going 20/25 for 202 yards, with three touchdown passes. The former UAB quarterback turned back the clock last week at home, and he’ll have a good chance to double down against a vulnerable Nevada defense. Hopkins has passed for 1,367 yards, with ten touchdowns to three interceptions over seven games.

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has scored multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games, and he leads UNM in rushing yards (545) and touchdowns (11).

• Senior wideout Jeremiah Hixon returned and scored twice in the win over Hawaii, and he leads the team in catches (22) with 220 receiving yards.

• The UNM defense has allowed 32.5 points per game.

Nevada Wolf Pack Preview

Nevada moved to 1-6 after defeating San Diego State, 6-0. The final result has SDSU written all over it, but it was the Wolf Pack who’d go on to prevail in the uneventful contest, and they’ll attempt to double down here at home. The Nevada offense is scoring 15.7 ppg, while passing for 188.3 ypg, rushing for 122.9 ypg, and converting 33.3% of their third downs.

Nevada Player Notes

• Brendon Lewis struggled again with the fierce SDSU defense, only going 9/22 for 98 yards. The former Buffs QB may have been better off just holding on in Boulder, because he’s dealt with a mess here in Reno. Lewis has thrown for 1,005 yards with two touchdowns to six interceptions, and he’s rushed for 351 yards and three scores thru seven starts.

• Junior back Sean Dollars scored in the rivalry game against UNLV, and he leads the backfield with just 290 yards on 89 carries.

• Senior wideout Jamaal Bell has cooled off since a great game against USC, but he leads the Pack in receptions (27) and receiving yards (350).

• The Nevada defense is allowing 33.8 points per game.

New Mexico vs Nevada Trends

• UNM is 4-3 against the spread, with a 6-1 O/U record.

• NEV is 4-3 ATS, with a 2-5 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Nevada getting into the win column puts them in a questionable spot here, as New Mexico has noticeably been the stronger program. The Wolf Pack have struggled on both sides of the ball, while the Lobos enter off of their best game of the season. Nevada should still be winless, so I like targeting them here in this follow-up spot. Back New Mexico for this Mountain West battle, and give the Over a look with UNM’s positive total trend.