Duke vs Louisville Prediction - College Football Picks 10/28/23

Louisville Cardinals (6-1) vs Duke Blue Devils (5-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 3:30 pm (L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium)

Betting Odds: Louisville Cardinals -4.5 -- Over/Under: 46.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Duke Blue Devils will play the Louisville Cardinals in an ACC game on Saturday afternoon at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky. Duke played Florida State pretty tough last week, while Louisville got roughed up by Pittsburgh in their last game. 

Duke Preview

The Duke Blue Devils are 5-2 (2-1) this year after they lost to Florida State by a score of 38-20 last week. Duke led 20-17 at the half, but they were out scored 21-0 in the second half for the loss. The Blue Devils were out gained by a total of 420-273 and they were 4-12 on third downs in the loss. Duke’s only other loss this year came against Notre Dame, in a game they also played very tough. The Duke offense is averaging 29.6 points per game with 173.3 passing yards per game and 198.3 rushing yards per game, while going 38.3% on third downs. Riley Leonard (questionable) has thrown for 981 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while also rushing for 339 yards and four touchdowns for the Blue Devils this year. Jordan Waters has rushed for 465 yards and nine scores, while Jalon Calhoun has caught 25 passes for 379 yards and two touchdowns. The Duke defense is giving up 13.9 points against per game this year. 

Louisville Preview

The Louisville Cardinals are 6-1 (3-1) this season after they lost to Pittsburgh by a score of 38-21 in their last game. Louisville led 21-14 at the half, but they lost the second half by a total of 24-0 for the loss. The Cardinals out gained Pitt by a total of 430-288, but turned the ball over three times in the game. Louisville had won their first six games of the season and they are currently tied for second in the ACC. The Louisville offense is scoring 34.1 points per game with 285.7 passing yards per game and 176.3 rushing yards per game, while going 39.5% on third downs. Jack Plummer has thrown for 1,901 yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions for the Cardinals this season. Jawhar Jordan (questionable) has rushed for 661 yards and eight scores, while Jamari Thrash has caught 39 passes for 639 yards and six touchdowns. The Louisville defense is allowing 20.6 points against per game this season.

Louisville Cardinals Team Facts

  • Louisville has won seven of its last eight games.
  • Louisville has covered the spread in each of its last four home games in October.
  • Four of Louisville's last five home games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.

Duke Blue Devils Team Facts

  • Duke has lost each of its last four October games against AP-ranked teams.
  • The favorite has covered the spread in each of Duke's last five games.
  • Duke has won the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Twelve of Duke's last 13 games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Louisville rank T40th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (20.6).


This should be a very good game between two Top-25 teams that are towards the top of the ACC. Duke has played very well this year, even in their two losses. Louisville was rolling, but they laid an egg in their last game against Pittsburgh. The Duke defense is only allowing about 14 points against per game, so it will be interesting to see how the Louisville offense is able to move the ball. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, so I am going to take Duke with the points here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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