Texas vs Houston Prediction - College Football Picks 10/21/23

Houston Cougars (3-3) vs Texas Longhorns (5-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 4:00 pm (TDECU Stadium)

Betting Odds: Houston Cougars +23.5 -- Over/Under: 59.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Houston Cougars will host the Texas Longhorns for a Lone Star battle in the Big 12 this weekend from Texas and Houston were former foes in the Southwest Conference, and they faced off in every season from 1976-1995. The Longhorns lead the all-time series, 16-7-2, after winning the last seven meetings.

Texas Longhorns Preview

Texas moved to 5-1 after losing to Oklahoma in Dallas by four, 34-30. The Longhorns left too much time on the clock for the Sooners to rally, and they’ll look to respond here in Houston. The Texas offense is scoring 35.0 ppg, while passing for 300.7 ypg, rushing for 185.8 ypg, and converting 41% of their third downs.

Texas Player Notes

• Quinn Ewers wasn’t able to double down on Oklahoma this time around, but he had another solid outing, passing for 346 yards with a touchdown to two picks. The sophomore signal caller missed a few timely throws last weekend, but he enters a very nice spot to bounce back in here in Space City. Ewers has thrown for 1,704 yards, with eleven touchdowns to three interceptions, and rushed for five scores on the ground through six starts.

• Sophomore back Jonathon Brooks surpassed the 100-yard mark for the fourth game in a row, and he leads the Big 12 in rushing with 726 yards on 108 carries.

• Third-year wideout Xavier Worthy went for a season-highs of eight catches for 108 yards in the loss to OU, and he leads UT in receptions (34) and receiving yards (453).

• UGA transfer Adonai Mitchell has scored in three of six games this season, and he’s second on the team with splits of 25/354/4.

• Third-year tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders surpassed the 100-yard mark in both road wins over Bama and Baylor, and he’s up to 14 catches and 291 yards for the season.

• The Texas defense is allowing 16.3 points per game.

Houston Cougars Preview

Houston comes in at 3-3 after defeating West Virginia at home. The Cougars came through as home underdogs against head coach Dana Holgorsen’s former squad, and they’ll now face a much steeper test with their in-state rivals this weekend. The Houston offense is scoring 29.7 ppg, while passing for 276.3 ypg, rushing for 134.2 ypg, and converting 44% of their third downs.

Houston Player Notes

• Donovan Smith followed up his own revenge game with a strong outing versus WVU, going 21/27 for 253 yards with four touchdowns. The former TTU quarterback has delivered back-to-back gems, and after totaling three scores against Texas last season, he’ll look to replicate that effort, with a winning result this time around. Smith has thrown for 1.600 yards with 13 touchdowns to eight interceptions, and rushed for 197 yards and four more scores on the ground through six contests.

• Freshman back Parker Jenkins leads the Cougs in rushing with 242 yards and three scores after being games against Sam Houston and Texas Tech.

• Sophomore wideout Samuel Brown has scored in back-to-back games, and he leads the team in receptions (36) and receiving yards (549).

• The Houston defense has allowed 31.3 points per game.

Texas vs Houston Trends

• Texas is 3-3 against the spread, with a 2-4 O/U record.

• Houston is 3-3 ATS, with a 4-2 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Texas came up just short last weekend, and while they should surely get back into the win column here, covering such a massive margin on the road may be challenging. The Longhorns may honestly see quite a few fans here in Houston, but after two productive offensive outings, the Cougars should be able to show some fight here at home. The Over is also sitting at a large number, so leaning on the Texas defense is also a route, but let’s spot Houston this large sum of points for this Lone Star matchup.