Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction - College Football Picks 10/21/23

Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) vs Tennessee Volunteers (5-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Bryant-Denny Stadium)

Betting Odds: Alabama Crimson Tide -8.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Tennessee Volunteers and Alabama Crimson Tide face off on Saturday in a college football showdown at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Bama Still Alive for College Football Playoff

Alabama has been playing with fire the last couple of weeks but they are still alive for the college football playoff. Two games ago against Texas A&M they won 26-20 and in the last game against Arkansas they won 24-21. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has still been inconsistent and that is something that needs to be cleaned up. Alabama is averaging 30.1 points while their defense is giving up 16 points per game. The defense is ranked 12th in the league and they are going to need the defense to step up here.

Alabama Betting Trends

Alabama has won 33 of its last 34 games against conference opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Alabama has covered the spread in 11 of its last 12 October games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams.
Alabama has won the first half in 22 of its last 29 games against conference opponents.
Alabama has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Biggest Game of the Year for Tennessee Right Here

Tennessee comes into this game with a 5-1 record but this is their biggest game of the season. In the last game against Texas A&M, Tennessee only scored 20 points, but the defense was elite giving up only 13 points and that led to the seven point victory. Even though they won, Joe Milton didn’t play that well and he’s going to need to be a whole lot better here. He completed 11 of his 22 passes for 100 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Tennessee is averaging 33.5 points while their defense is giving up 17 points per game.

Tennessee Betting Trends

Tennessee has won seven of its last eight games.
The home team has covered the spread in each of Tennessee's last four games.
Tennessee has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Tennessee has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Four of Tennessee's last five October road games against top-15 AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

This is going to come down to the quarterback play for both teams. I am not exactly sold on Milton for Tennessee, but he still might be the better quarterback in this game. Outside of the deep ball, Milroe has a ton of issues and he’s going to really struggle in this game. Tennessee’s defense is going to step up against Alabama’s offense and that is going to be the difference as they are going to keep this game close. Back Tennessee against the spread.