Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction - College Football Picks 10/21/23

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-5) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium)

Betting Odds: Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 -- Over/Under: 48.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Mississippi State Bulldogs will play the Arkansas Razorbacks in a SEC game on Saturday afternoon at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Mississippi State has lost all three conference games this year, while Arkansas is 0-4 in the SEC. 

Mississippi State Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 3-3 (0-3) this year after they defeated Western Michigan by a score of 41-28 in their last game. Mississippi State led 17-0 in the second quarter and was able to keep WMU at an arms length in the second half. The Bulldogs out gained Western Michigan by a total of 440-413 and both teams turned the ball over once in the game. Mississippi State has three non-conference wins against SE Louisiana, Arizona, and Western Michigan, but they have really struggled defensively in SEC play. The Mississippi State offense is averaging 30.2 points per game with 222.7 passing yards per game and 152.8 rushing yards per game, while going 36% on third downs. Will Rogers (questionable) has thrown for 1,275 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Bulldogs this year. Jo’Quavious Marks (questionable) has rushed for 458 yards and four scores, while Lideatrick Griffin has caught 29 passes for 474 yards and three touchdowns. The Mississippi State defense is giving up 29.5 points against per game this year.

Arkansas Preview

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 2-5 (0-4) this season after they lost to Alabama by a score of 24-21 last week. Arkansas led 6-0 in the first quarter and trailed 24-21 with plenty of time left in the fourth quarter, but they couldn’t find any more points in the game. The Razorbacks were out gained by a total of 415-250 and went 4-14 on third downs in the loss. Arkansas started the season with two straight wins, but they have lost five games in a row. The Arkansas offense is scoring 30.1 points per game with 211.1 passing yards per game and 109.9 rushing yards per game, while going 42.3% on third downs. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 1,450 yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while rushing for 162 yards and one touchdown for the Razorbacks this season. AJ Green has rushed for 239 yards and two touchdowns, while Andrew Armstrong has caught 39 passes for 485 yards and four scores. The Arkansas defense is allowing 25.1 points against per game this season.

Arkansas Razorbacks Team Facts

  • Arkansas has lost each of its last five games against conference opponents.
  • Arkansas has covered the spread in each of its last four games in October.
  • Seven of Arkansas' last eight games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Team Facts

  • The favorite has won each of Mississippi State's last seven games.
  • Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
  • Mississippi State has lost the first half in six of its last seven games against conference opponents.
  • Twelve of Mississippi State's last 14 October games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.


Both of these teams have really struggled in SEC play this year, but the good news is that one of these teams will pick up their first conference win of the season here. Arkansas has surprised me this season, as I thought they would be much better, and they are wasting a season that they have a lot of talent. They have had questionable coaching and below average quarterback play, but they will be at home for this game. Mississippi State has allowed 40, 37, and 31 points in their three SEC games and they might be a bigger mess than Arkansas. Arkansas has shown flashes of solid play, but can they put a full game together? The Razorbacks have the slightly better defense and I am going to take them to get their first win in conference play. 

David’s Pick Arkansas -6.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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