Duke vs Florida State Prediction - College Football Picks 10/21/23

Florida State Seminoles (6-0) vs Duke Blue Devils (5-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium)

Betting Odds: Florida State Seminoles -16.5 -- Over/Under: 51.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Duke Blue Devils will make the trip to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles in ACC play this weekend from Doak Campbell Stadium on ABC. FSU holds an Undertaker-like 21-0 series lead over Duke after winning their previous meeting in 2020, 56-35.

Duke Blue Devils Preview 

Duke enters at 5-1 after defeating N.C. State in Durham, 24-3. The Blue Devils controlled the contest on both sides of the ball, and they’ll look to bring that momentum into Tallahassee.  The Duke offense is scoring 31.2 ppg, while passing for 189.5 ypg, rushing for 198.5 ypg, and converting 39.1% of their third downs.

Duke Player Notes

Henry Berlin IV replaced Riley Leonard behind center last week, and he wasn’t asked to do much, but he managed to toss a pair of touchdown passes while going just 4/12. If Leonard is unable to go, this might be a really intimidating spot for the freshman QB.

• Senior back Jordan Waters has scored in all six games, and after going for a season-high 123 yards in the in-state win over the Wolfpack, he leads the Blue Devils in rushing yards (426).

• Veteran wideout Jalon Calhoun scored on a 69-yard bomb in last weekend’s win, and he’s now first on the team with 368 yards on 24 catches.

• Junior receiver Jordan Moore leads Duke in receptions (25), with 322 receiving yards.

• The Duke defense has allowed 9.8 ppg. 


Florida State Seminoles Preview

Florida State improved to 6-0 after defeating Syracuse at home, 41-3. The Seminoles played no games with the Orange en route to the blowout victory, and they’ll look to bring the same energy here against Duke. The FSU offense is scoring 42.2 ppg, while passing for 272.0 ypg, rushing for 177.4 ypg, and converting 41.6% of their third downs.

FSU Player Notes

Jordan Travis had another turnover free outing last weekend, passing for 284 yards and a score against Syracuse. The senior QB has put Florida State back on the map over the past two seasons, and he’s got a good chance of leading them to the CFB Playoff with a strong finish.  Travis comes into Week 8 with 1,482 passing yards, with 13 touchdowns to one interception.

Trey Benson came alive in the win over Virginia Tech with a career-high 200 yards and two scores, and he leads the Noles in rushing with 463 yards, and six touchdowns. 

• Junior wideout Keon Coleman provided a catch of the year candidate en route to a season-high 140 yards against Syracuse, and he leads FSU in receptions (29), receiving yards (418), and touchdowns (7) after a big game against LSU.

• The FSU defense has allowed 18.3 points per game. 


Duke vs Florida State Trends

Duke is 4-2 against the spread, with a 3-3 O/U record. 

FSU is 5-1 ATS, with a 5-1 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

This contest totally hinges on the availability of Riley Leonard, because if the star QB is unable to go, this one might get dark for Duke. The Blue Devils revival has been inspiring, but they’re about to run into an FSU team with their eyes on the prize, and it’s unlikely they slip up to backup quarterback at Doak Campbell. The Over may just be in play, as the Noles are capable of doing the heavy lifting, but let’s back Florida State sending another message to the conference with a firm victory here over Duke.

Corey’s Pick FSU to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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