Baylor vs Cincinnati Prediction - College Football Picks 10/21/23

Cincinnati Bearcats (2-4) vs Baylor Bears (2-4)

Game Info: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Nippert Stadium)

Betting Odds: Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Baylor Bears will head up to Ohio to meet the Cincinnati Bearcats this weekend in Big 12 play from Nippert Stadium on ESPN+. This will mark the first time these two schools have met.

Baylor Bears Preview

Baylor fell to 2-4 after losing to Texas Tech in Lubbock, 39-14. The Bears were outgunned from the first whistle by the Red Raiders, and they’ll attempt to regroup here against Cincinnati. The Baylor offense is scoring 21.7 ppg, while passing for 279.5 ypg, rushing for 121.5 ypg, and converting 38.3% of their third downs.

Baylor Player Notes

• Blake Shapen went for a season-high 324 yards, but he had a tough time with the Texas Tech pass rush last weekend, and it ultimately affected the outcome. The junior quarterback has produced well through a pair of starts after returning from an injury, but he’ll face a tough test here in a cross country trip here to Cincy. Shapen has passed for 920 yards and four touchdowns thru three games.

• Richard Reese wasn’t able to leave his mark last weekend after going for 100 yards in the win over UCF, but he still leads BU in rushing with 229 yards on 49 carries.

• Junior wideout Monaray Baldwin has reached the 125-yard mark in consecutive games, and he’s first on the team in receiving with 404 yards on 17 catches in four games.

• The Baylor defense has allowed 28.4 points per game.

Cincinnati Bearcats Preview

Cincinnati dropped to 2-4 after losing to Iowa State at home, 30-10. The Bearcats let the Cyclones pull away in the second half, and they’ll look to avoid a fifth straight loss this weekend. The Cincinnati offense is scoring 39.0 ppg, while passing for 286.0 ypg, rushing for 202.7 ypg, and converting 41.9% of their third downs.

Cincy Player Notes

• Emory Jones had a forgetful outing versus Iowa State, passing for a season-low 96 yards with a touchdown and two picks. Jones did manage to gain 85 yards on the ground, but his inability to move the needle thru the air against the worse offense in the conference is alarming, and he’ll need to pick things up to avoid another defeat here at home. Jones has thrown for 1,322 yard, with eleven touchdowns to eight interceptions, and he’s rushed for 352 yards and three scores they six games.

• Junior back Corey Kiner has cooled off here in conference play, but he still leads the team in rushing yards (434).

• Former Florida wideout Xzavier Henderson was held catchless in the loss to ISU, but still leads Cincinnati in receptions (30) and receiving yards (414).

• The Cincy defense is allowing 21.6 points per game.

Baylor vs Cincinnati Trends

• Baylor is 2-4 against the spread, with a 2-4 O/U record.

• Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS, with a 3-3 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Cincinnati has to capitalize on the opportunity to land their first conference in here, as four of their final six games are on the road, and they won’t come any easier than this. Baylor has been the Big 12’s version of Auburn this season, as they’ve been unable to find consistency on the offensive side of the ball. The Bearcats will likely lean on their ground game and defense here at home in efforts to control the clock, and I like rolling with the under for this first-time matchup.