Air Force vs Navy Prediction - College Football Picks 10/21/23

Navy Midshipmen (3-3) vs Air Force Falcons (6-0)

Game Info: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: Navy Midshipmen +10.5 -- Over/Under: 34.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Air Force Falcons and Navy Midshipmen face off on Saturday in an all-military college football showdown at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

Navy Looks to Move Above .500 

Navy went through some struggles for a few weeks, but they have won two games in a row now. Two games ago against North Texas, Navy won 27-24 and in the last game against Charlotte, they won 14-0. Against Charlotte, the defense was elite and they finished with two interceptions. Even though they won in the last game, Navy didn’t actually perform that well on offense. They only had 92 yards through the air and the top rusher only had 75 yards. Navy is averaging 20.3 points while their defense is givign up 23 points per game. 

Navy Betting Trends

  • Navy has lost seven of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
  • Navy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-conference opponents at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
  • Navy has lost the first half in five of its last six games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
  • Six of Navy's last seven games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Air Force Looks to Continue Perfect Start

Air Force sits with a 6-0 perfect record and they are coming off another big vicory in the last game. Air Force started slow against Wyoming, but the defense gave up only six points in the second half and that was enough for the victory. Quarterback Zachary Larrier had a strong game throwing for 59 yards and a touchdown. He also rushed 20 times for 111 yards and a touchdown. Air Force is averaging 37 points while their defense is giving up 14.7 points per game. The defense is ranked 9th best in college football and the defense is going to need to step up here. 

Air Force Betting Trends

  • Air Force has won each of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Air Force has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six October games as a favorite.
  • Air Force has won the first half in four of its last five games against opponents from the American Athletic Conference.
  • Air Force has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against opponents from the American Athletic Conference.
  • Each of Air Force's last four games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

This is a low total, but it’s still too high. Air Force’s defense is elite and they goign to lockdown a Navy offense that really struggled to score in the last game. I do expect  the Navy defense is going to step up though, and Air Force is also going to have some major issues getting the offense going here. This game could finish 7-6 and it wouldn’t be all that shocking. Back the under to cash here.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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