Toledo vs Ball State Prediction - College Football Picks 10/14/23

Ball State Cardinals (1-5) vs Toledo Rockets (5-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 2:00 pm (Scheumann Stadium)

Betting Odds: Ball State Cardinals +16.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Toledo Rockets will play the Ball State Cardinals in a MAC game on Saturday afternoon at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Indiana. Toledo has won five games in a row, while Ball State comes into this matchup on a three game losing streak. 

Toledo Preview

The Toledo Rockets are 5-1 (2-0) this season after they defeated UMass by a score of 41-24 in their last game. Toledo trailed 21-17 at halftime, but they scored 24 points in the second half for the win. The Rockets out gained UMass by a total of 514-439 and went 9-15 on third downs in the game. Toledo opened their season with a loss to Illinois, but they have won five straight games. The Toledo offense is scoring 40.8 points per game with 224.5 passing yards per game and 248.7 rushing yards per game, while going 52% on third downs. Dequan Finn has thrown for 1,099 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while rushing for 413 yards and four touchdowns for the Rockets this year. Peny Boone has rushed for 644 yards and seven scores, while Junior Vandeross III has caught 21 passes for 328 yards and one touchdown. The Toledo defense is allowing 23 points against per game this season. 

Ball State Preview

The Ball State Cardinals are 1-5 (0-2) this season after they lost to Eastern Michigan by a score of 24-10 in their last game. Ball State trailed 17-10 at halftime, but they weren’t able to find any points in the second half. The Cardinals out gained EMU by a total of 305-253, but turned the ball over two times in the loss. Ball State’s only win came against Indiana State, so they are still looking for their first win against a FBS team. The Ball State offense is averaging 16.5 points per game with 190 passing yards per game and 111.7 rushing yards per game, while going 31.7% on third downs. Layne Hatcher has thrown for 565 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception for the Cardinals this year. Marquez Cooper has rushed for 362 yards and one touchdown, while Qian Magwood has caught 27 passes for 260 yards and one score. The Ball State defense is giving up 33.7 points against per game this year.

Ball State Cardinals Team Facts

  • Ball State has won six of its last seven October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • The favorite has covered the spread in seven of Ball State's last eight games.
  • Ball State has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents at Scheumann Stadium.
  • Seven of Ball State's last eight games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Toledo Rockets Team Facts

  • Toledo has won seven of its last eight games.
  • Toledo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Each of Toledo's last four games as a favorite against Ball State have gone UNDER the total points line.


Ball State comes into this matchup really struggling and it isn’t going to get any easier against one of the best teams in the MAC. Toledo has scored 35+ points in their last three games and they shouldn’t have any problems in this game. Ball State is only averaging 300 yards per game and 16.5 points, which is not enough to hang with the Toledo offense. Toledo has had a couple of slow starts, but I expect them to cover here. 

David’s Pick Toledo -16.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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