NC State vs Duke Prediction - College Football Picks 10/14/23

Duke Blue Devils (4-1) vs NC State Wolfpack (4-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 8:00 pm (Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium)

Betting Odds: Duke Blue Devils -3 -- Over/Under: 45.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The NC State Wolfpack will play the Duke Blue Devils in an ACC game on Saturday night at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. NC State was able to outlast Marshall last weekend, while Duke is coming off of a loss to Notre Dame in their last game. 

NC State Preview

The NC State Wolfpack are 4-2 (1-1) this season after they defeated Marshall by a score of 48-41 last week. NC State trailed 24-21 at halftime and it was only a one point game going into the final quarter, but NC State scored 13 straight points in the fourth for the win. The Wolfpack were out gained by a total of 419-401 and both teams turned the ball over three times in the game. NC State also has wins over UConn, VMI, and Virginia, while picking up losses to Notre Dame and Louisville. The NC State offense is scoring 29.2 points per game with 206 passing yards per game and 148.5 rushing yards per game, while going 43.2% on third downs. MJ Morris has thrown for 265 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Wolfpack this year. Michael Allen has rushed for 209 yards and three scores, while Kevin Concepcion has caught 31 passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns. The NC State defense is allowing 23.5 points against per game this year. 

Duke Preview

The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 (1-0) this season after they lost to Notre Dame by a score of 21-14 in their last game. Duke trailed 13-0 in the third quarter, but fought back to take the 14-13 lead, before giving up the game winning touchdown with 31 seconds left. The Blue Devils were out gained by a total of 381-323 and turned the ball over two times in the loss. Duke had started the season with four straight wins against Clemson, Lafayette, Northwestern, and UConn. The Duke offense is averaging 32.6 points per game with 206 passing yards per game and 199.4 rushing yards per game, while going 43.3% on third downs. Riley Leonard (questionable) has thrown for 912 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 326 yards and four touchdowns for Duke this year. Jordan Waters has rushed for 303 yards and eight scores, while Jordan Moore has caught 24 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns. The Duke defense is giving up 11.2 points against per game this season.

Duke Blue Devils Team Facts

  • Duke has won seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
  • Duke has covered the spread in each of its last five games against conference opponents at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
  • Duke has won the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
  • Each of Duke's last three games against conference opponents at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

NC State Wolfpack Team Facts

  • NC State has lost five of its last six October games against AP-ranked teams.
  • NC State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five matches when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • NC State has won the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents.
  • Ten of NC State's last 12 games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Pick

Duke comes into this game trying to bounce back from a tough loss against Notre Dame, where they were so close to getting the win. The big question mark for the Blue Devils will be the health of quarterback Riley Leonard, who is the heart and soul of this team. If Leonard can’t play, it will be a big advantage for NC State. NC State did struggle against Marshall last week, which is definitely concerning, but their rush defense has been pretty good this year. I am going to assume Leonard will play, so I am going to take Duke in this one, but make sure you check his status prior to the game. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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