Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State Prediction - College Football Picks 10/14/23

Texas State Bobcats (4-2) vs Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium)

Betting Odds: Texas State Bobcats -14.5 -- Over/Under: 62 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Texas State Bobcats and the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks will meet in Sun Belt play this weekend from Bobcat Stadium on ESPN+. ULM leads the head-to-head series, 13-6, after winning last year’s meeting by a point, 31-30.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Preview

Louisiana-Monroe dropped to 2-3 after being blown out by South Alabama at home, 55-7. The Warhawks were at the Jaguars mercy for four quarters, and they’ll attempt to show more fight here in San Marcos. The ULM offense is scoring 41.2 ppg, while passing for 133.0 ypg, rushing for 192.0 ypg, and converting 31.3% of their third downs.

Louisiana-Monroe Player Notes

• Jiya Wright wasn’t able to replicate his success versus App State last weekend, only going 13/28 for 112 yards, with a touchdown and a pair of picks. The senior QB will face another opposing strong offense here with Texas State, so he may be in for another overwhelming battle. Wright has passed for 544 yards, with five touchdowns to five interceptions thru four starts.

• The Warhawks haven’t been able to run the ball well over the past three weeks, but sophomore back Hunter Smith leads the team with 277 rushing yards.

• Senior wideout Tyrone Howell scored three times in the close loss to Appalachian St., and he leads ULM in receptions (27) and receiving yards (275).

• The ULM defense is allowing 34.0 points per game.

Texas State Bobcats Preview

Texas State enters at 4-2 after losing to Louisiana in Lafayette, 34-30. The Bobcats weren’t able to hold off a rally from the Ragin’ Cajuns, and they’ll look to regroup here at home. The Texas St. offense is scoring 41.2 ppg, while passing for 276.2 ypg, rushing for 205.2 ypg, and converting 41.2% of their third downs.

Texas State Player Notes

• TJ Finley put together his best start of the season last weekend, going 30/40 for 326 yards with two touchdowns to an interception. The former Auburn QB has been the leader behind the emerging story here at Texas State, and he’ll look to remain undefeated at home this weekend. Finley has thrown for 1,620 yards, with twelve touchdowns to two interceptions thru six starts.

• Sophomore back Ismail Mahdi dashed for 188 yards and a score in the loss to ULL, and he leads the Bobcats in rushing with 676 yards on 84 touches.

• Utah Tech transfer Joey Hobert has caught eight passes or more in three straight games, and he leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (502).

• The TXST defense has allowed 29.8 points per game.

UL Monroe vs Texas State Trends

• ULM is 2-3 against the spread, with a 2-3 O/U record.

• TXST is 4-2 ATS, with a 4-2 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Texas State has flown under the radar, but they’ve been one of the best stories in college football due to how first-year coach G.J. Kinne and legendary AD Don Coryell have revamped the roster and changed the energy in the program. The season-opening win over Baylor was a huge step in the right direction, and after letting last week slip away from them, I believe they’ll come out sharp here. Monroe was blown out on their home turf last weekend, and they may just be in for another long night. Let’s back Texas State getting revenge on the state Louisiana with a big win here.