SMU vs East Carolina Prediction - College Football Picks 10/12/23

East Carolina Pirates (1-4) vs SMU Mustangs (3-2)

Game Info: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium)

Betting Odds: East Carolina Pirates +12.5 -- Over/Under: 49.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN Stream live sports and exclusive originals on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

The SMU Mustangs will play the East Carolina Pirates in an AAC game on Thursday night at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenview, North Carolina. SMU has alternated wins and losses through their first five games, while East Carolina is still looking for their first win against a FBS program. 

SMU Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 3-2 (1-0) this season after they defeated Charlotte by a score of 34-16 in their last game. SMU led 17-3 at the half and extended their lead to 27-3 in the third quarter to cruise to an easy win. The Mustangs out gained Charlotte by a total of 363-331 and went 8-14 on third down conversions in the win. SMU also has wins against Prairie View and Louisiana Tech, while losing to Oklahoma and TCU. The SMU offense is scoring 32.6 points per game with 256 passing yards per game and 177.8 rushing yards per game, while going 42% on third downs this year. Preston Stone has thrown for 1,191 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions for the Mustangs this season. Jaylan Knighton has rushed for 332 yards and two touchdowns, while Jordan Hudson has caught 10 passes for 178 yards and two scores. The SMU defense is allowing 18.4 points against per game this season. 

East Carolina Preview

The East Carolina Pirates are 1-4 (0-1) this season after they lost to Rice by a score of 24-17 in their last game. East Carolina led this game 3-0 in the first quarter and they were tied at 17 in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t get anything going after that. The Pirates out gained Rice by a total of 391-277, but did go 2-6 on fourth downs in the loss. East Carolina’s only win this season came against Gardner-Webb, while their losses came against Michigan, Marshall, Appalachian State, and Rice. The East Carolina offense is averaging 22.6 points per game with 169.2 passing yards per game and 135 rushing yards per game, while going 35.6% on third downs. Alex Flinn has thrown for 611 yards, one touchdown, and five interceptions for the Pirates this season. Rahjai Harris has rushed for 217 yards and four scores, while Jaylen Johnson has caught 20 passes for 206 yards. The ECU defense is giving up 25.6 points against per game and has really struggled this season. 

East Carolina Pirates Team Facts

  • East Carolina has won each of its last four home games in October.
  • East Carolina has covered the spread in six of its last seven October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Each of East Carolina's last five October games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

SMU Mustangs Team Facts

  • SMU has won 15 of its last 16 October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
  • Each of SMU's last four October games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.


East Carolina comes into this matchup looking for their first FBS win and will have the home field advantage in this one. SMU has alternated wins and losses to start the season, but they will try to snap that trend, as they won their last game. SMU is averaging over 430 yards of offense this year and their defense has been pretty solid. East Carolina’s offense has struggled and their defense has allowed 24, 43, 31, and 30 points against FBS teams this year. I like SMU to win this game easily. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA, NCAAF, NHL Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Friday 12/1/23 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.