Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Prediction - College Football Picks 10/11/23

New Mexico State Aggies (3-3) vs Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-5)

Game Info: Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 9:00 pm (Aggie Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: New Mexico State Aggies -3.5 -- Over/Under: 41.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Sam Houston Bearkats will play the New Mexico State Aggies in a Conference-USA game on Wednesday night at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Sam Houston comes into this game looking for their first win of the season, while New Mexico State has alternated wins and losses in their first six games. 

Sam Houston Preview

The Sam Houston Bearkats are 0-5 (0-2) this season after they lost to Liberty by a score of 21-16 in their last game. Sam Houston trailed 21-10 going into halftime, but they were able to cut the lead to 21-16 in the third quarter. The Bearkats did drive down to the three yard line with a few seconds left in the game, but couldn’t score. Sam Houston was out gained by a total of 448-327 and the turnover battle was tied at one in the game. Sam Houston has also lost to BYU, Air Force, Houston, and Jacksonville State. The Sam Houston offense is scoring 10.8 points per game with 174.2 passing yards per game and 66.8 rushing yards per game. Keegan Shoemaker has thrown for 731 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions for the Bearkats this year. John Gentry (questionable) has rushed for 141 yards, while Noah Smith has caught 30 passes for 253 yards and one score. The Sam Houston defense is allowing 24.2 points against per game this year. 

New Mexico State Preview

The New Mexico State Aggies are 3-3 (1-1) this season after they defeated FIU by a score of 34-17 in their last game. New Mexico State was tied at 17 going into the fourth quarter, but they scored 17 unanswered points in the final quarter for the win. The Aggies out gained FIU by a total of 439-405 and forced two turnovers in the game. New Mexico State’s two other wins came against New Mexico and Western Illinois, while the three losses came against UMass, Liberty, and Hawaii. The New Mexico State offense is averaging 30.5 points per game with 238 passing yards per game and 200.3 rushing yards per game. Diego Pavia has thrown for 1,329 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while also rushing for 314 yards and one touchdown for the Aggies this season. Monte Watkins has rushed for 292 yards and two scores, while Jonathan Brady has caught 13 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns. The New Mexico State defense is giving up 24.8 points against per game this season. 

New Mexico State Aggies Team Facts

  • New Mexico State has won five of its last six games at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
  • New Mexico State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games in October.
  • Each of New Mexico State's last five games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Sam Houston State Bearkats Team Facts

Matchup/League Facts

  • New Mexico State ranked 21st among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (4.9).
  • New Mexico State ranked T26th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (10.5).


Sam Houston was very close to pulling off the upset win last week against Liberty, but they couldn’t get the job done and have lost five games in a row to start the season. New Mexico State struggled with FIU last week, before pulling away in the fourth quarter. The Sam Houston offense has some really bad numbers this year, but they have looked better in the last two weeks and will face a New Mexico State defense that isn’t great. I think Sam Houston can keep this game close, but I like the over here. The New Mexico State defense will allow plenty of yards, but their offense will also score plenty of points, so I am taking the over here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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