Western Michigan at Mississippi State Prediction - College Football Picks 10/7/23

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-3) vs Western Michigan Broncos (2-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

Betting Odds: Mississippi State Bulldogs -20 -- Over/Under: 58.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Western Michigan Broncos will fly down to StarkVegas to meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs in non-conference play this weekend from Davis Wade Stadium on the SEC Network. This will be the first time these two programs face off.

Western Michigan Broncos Preview

Western Michigan moved to 2-3 after defeating Ball State in Kalamazoo, 42-24.  The Broncos held on to a big halftime lead to defeat the Cardinals, but they’ll face an uphill battle here with the Bulldogs. The WMU offense is scoring 25.0 ppg, while passing for 200.8 ypg, rushing for 184.4 ypg, and converting 40% of their third downs.

WMU Player Notes

Treyson Bourguet came through with his best start of the season versus Ball State, passing for 328 yards and three touchdowns. The freshman quarterback has performed well in MAC play, but he did struggle in the two Power 5 battles with Syracuse and Iowa. Bourguet has passed for 676 yards, with four touchdowns to one interception thru four games.

• Freshman back Jalen Buckley has scored in four of the first five contests, and he leads WMU in rushing yards (557), with five scores.

• Junior wideout Anthony Sambucci caught all three of Bourguet’s touchdown passes, and he leads the Broncos with 207 rushing yards.

• The WMU defense allowed 35.8 points per game.


Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview

Mississippi State dropped to 2-3 after losing to Alabama at home, 40-17.  The Bulldogs were strapped up by the Crimson Tide, but they have a good chance of getting back to .500 here against the Broncos. The Mississippi State offense is scoring 28.0 ppg, while passing for 218.0 ypg, rushing for 144.6 ypg, and converting 33.9% of their third downs.

Mississippi State Player Notes

Will Rogers had a performance to forget against the stiff Alabama defense, only passing for 107 yards with a touchdown to three interceptions. The senior quarterback heroically returned to school after the loss of legendary head coach Mike Leach, but things haven’t gone well early on in conference play. Rogers is still a talented QB, things are just different this season in Starkville, and he’s passed for 1,086 yards with seven touchdowns to four interceptions through five starts.

• Senior back Jo’Quavious Marks managed to gain 68 yards on nine carries versus Bama, and he leads the team with 420 rushing yards.

• Senior wideout Lideatrick Griffin has caught four passes or more in each of the first five games, and he leads State in receptions (25) and receiving yards (409).

• The Mississippi State defense is allowing 29.8 points per game.


Western Michigan vs Mississippi State Trends

WMU is 1-4 against the spread, with a 3-2 O/U record. 

State is 1-4 ATS, with a 2-3 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Mississippi State needs this ball game, but are they worth trusting to cover a 20-point margin right now? They very well could, but I like testing the magic number, as Western Michigan should be able to chip in as well. Will Rogers has been through a lot over the past twelve months, but he should fare well this Saturday, so let’s look for an uptick offensively from the Bulldogs and back the Over for this contest, and with this also being one of the few possible lopsided non-conference matchups on the slate, give the spread a slight look. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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