Vanderbilt vs Florida Prediction - College Football Picks 10/7/23

Florida Gators (3-2) vs Vanderbilt Commodores (2-4)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 4:00 pm (Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium)

Betting Odds: Florida Gators -18 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Vanderbilt Commodores and Florida Gators face off on Saturday in an SEC showdown at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Can Vanderbilt’s Defense Step Up?

Vanderbilt has won two games in a season but since that point they have lost four games in a row. The offense has actually been decent heading into this game, but the defense has been a major issue. In the last game against Kentucky, Vanderbilt scored 28 points, but the defense gave up 45 points. AJ Swann did have an issue with turnovers throwing three interceptions and he can’t continue to turn the ball over. Vanderbilt is averaging 31.1 points while their defense is giving up 33.3 points per game. 

Vanderbilt Betting Trends

  • Vanderbilt has lost 16 of its last 17 road games against conference opponents.
  • Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Vanderbilt has lost the first half in 28 of its last 31 games against conference opponents.
  • Eight of Vanderbilt's last nine road games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Florida Looks to Bounce Back

Florida has lost two games this season and they really struggled in the last game. Florida’s offense only scored 14 points against Kentucky and that was the difference as they were blown out. Graham Mertz did have a solid game completing 25 of his 30 passes for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The running game wasn’t good for Florida and that was a big reason for the struggles. The Gators are averaging 25 points while their defense is giving up 17.4 points per game.

Florida Betting Trends

  • Florida has won eight of its last nine games against Vanderbilt.
  • The home team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between Vanderbilt and Florida.
  • Florida has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
  • Four of Florida's last five October home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

This total is too low. Vanderbilt’s offense has found success this season, but their defense has been a major issue and it’s going to let them down again in this game. Look for Florida to score at least 45 points here and that is going to be enough for this game to go over the total. This is one of my favorite plays on the board and the over is going to cash with ease here. Back the over. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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