Toledo at Massachusetts Prediction - College Football Picks 10/7/23

Massachusetts Minutemen (1-5) vs Toledo Rockets (4-1)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium)

Betting Odds: Massachusetts Minutemen +19.5 -- Over/Under: 59 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The UMass Minutemen will host the Toledo Rockets for a non-conference matchup this weekend from Alumni Stadium on ESPNU. Toledo and UMass have met seven times, with the Rockets holding a 6-1 head-to-head lead, after winning last year’s matchup at home, 55-10.

Toledo Rockets Preview

Toledo improved to 4-1 after defeating Northern Illinois at home, 35-33. The Rockets held off a fierce rally from the Huskies to escape by two, and they’ll look to win a fifth straight game. The Toledo offense is scoring 40.8 ppg, while passing for 241.6 ypg, rushing for 138.7 ypg, and converting 48.4% of their third downs.

Toledo Player Notes

DeQuan Finn put together his best start of the season versus NIU, going 16/20 for 281 yards and three total touchdowns. The junior QB has been sharp through five games, and he’ll look to capitalize on a light UMass defense. Finn has thrown for 960 yards, with ten touchdowns to four interceptions, and he’s rushed for 241 yards and three scores on the ground. 

• Junior back Peny Boone has surpassed the 110-yard mark in three straight contests, and he leads the Rockets in rushing with 515 yards on 68 touches and five touchdowns.

• Third-year wideout Jerjuan Newton has scored in all five games, and he leads Toledo in receptions (18) for 260 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

• The Toledo defense is allowing 22.8 points per game.


UMass Minutemen Preview

UMass fell to 1-5 after losing to Arkansas State at home, 52-28. The Minutemen were blitzed thru the first three quarters and fell as surprising home favorites, and they’ll attempt to prevent allowing the Rockets to come in and down the same this weekend. The UMass offense is scoring 26.5 ppg, while passing for 250.7 ypg, rushing for 138.7 ypg, and converting 36% of their third downs.

UMass Player Notes

• Taisun Phommachanh padded the stats in the blowout loss, going 29/38 for 269 yards with a score and a pick. The junior replaced Carlos Davis versus New Mexico, and he may likely be playing catch up again.

• Junior back Kay’ron Lynch-Adams has found the endzone in three straight games, and he leads UMass in rushing yards (504).

• Arizona transfer Anthony Simpson caught a season-high seven passes in the loss to Arkansas State, and he leads the team in receptions (26) and receiving yards (426).

• The UMass defense has allowed 39.7 points per game.


Toledo vs Massachusetts Trends

Toledo is 1-3 against the spread, with a 2-3 O/U record. 

UMass is 2-4 ATS, with a 5-1 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Toledo prevented a disaster last weekend, but they come into a great spot to nab a fifth straight win. DeQuan Finn should have his way with the UMass defense, and this contest could look a lot like the Minutemen’s matchup with Arkansas State last Saturday. UMass should be targeted for the remainder of the season, so let’s back Toledo to be great this weekend.

Corey’s Pick Toledo to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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