Texas Tech at Baylor Prediction - College Football Picks 10/7/23

Baylor Bears (2-3) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-3)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 8:00 pm (McLane Stadium)

Betting Odds: Baylor Bears +1.5 -- Over/Under: 56.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will make the in-state trip to Waco to meet the Baylor Bears in Big 12 play this Saturday from McLane Stadium on ESPN2. Despite being lost in the shadow of the Red River Showdown this weekend, the Baylor/Texas Tech rivalry holds extensive history as well. Dubbed the Texas Shootout, this matchup dates back to 1929, and they even met in Arlington at Jerry World from 2011-2018. Baylor holds a narrow 41-39-1 all-time series lead, after winning last year’s meeting in Lubbock, 45-17.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview

Texas Tech moved to 2-3 after defeating Houston in Lubbock, 49-28. The Red Raiders shut the Cougars out in the second half to earn their first respectable win of the season, and they’ll attempt to build on that performance this weekend. The TTU offense is scoring 33.2 ppg, while passing for 244.0 ypg, rushing for 162.0 ypg, and converting 36.1% of their third downs.

TTU Player Notes

• Behren Morton now has the keys at quarterback with Tyler Shough still on the shelf, and he game-managed last week's contest well by protecting the ball, passing for 161 yards and two touchdowns. The hometown product struggled in his lone road spot versus WVU, and he’ll look to avoid those same struggles here in Waco. 

• Senior back Tahj Brooks surpassed the 105-yard mark for the third weekend in a row, and he leads TTU in rushing with 523 yards on 84 touches.

• Sophomore wideout Jerand Bradley has scored in three of the first five games, and he leads the Red Raiders in receptions (21) and receiving yards (246). 

• The TTU defense is allowing 24.0 points per game.


Baylor Bears Preview

Baylor enters at 2-3 after defeating UCF in Orlando by one, 36-35. The Bears were very close to a 1-4 start, but a miraculous fourth quarter would prevent that, and they’ll attempt to get back to .500 this weekend. The Baylor offense is scoring 23.2 ppg, while passing for 270.6 ypg, rushing for 142.4 ypg, and converting 40.5% of their third downs.

Baylor Player Notes

Blake Shapen returned last week, and it showed in the final result, as he passed for 293 yards, with a touchdown toss and rush. Shapen was knocked out of the loss to Texas State, but the Bears have been respectable with him behind center, and he’ll look to keep them in the win column here against TTU. Shapen has passed for 596 yards and three touchdowns thru two games. 

Richard Reese broke through with his first 100-yard performance in the win over UCF, and he leads BU in rushing with 225 yards on 45 carries.

• Junior wideout Monaray Baldwin had a big game against the Knights, and he’s now first on the team in receiving with 278 yards on twelve catches in three games.

• The Baylor defense has allowed 28.4 points per game.


Texas Tech vs Baylor Trends

Texas Tech is 1-4 against the spread, with a 3-2 O/U record. 

Baylor is 1-3-1 ATS, with a 2-3 over/under record.

• TTU has lost six of its last seven road games against conference opponents.

• BAY has won eight of its last nine home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Corey’s Free Pick

Baylor pulled off something special last weekend, and if Blake Shapen goes for this one, they will have a chance to come through as home underdogs this weekend. Texas Tech has struggled through the first portion of the season, and after dropping their first two road games to Wyoming and West Virginia, they could very easily falter here again. Long gone are the days of Kliff Kingsbury, Graham Harrell, and Patrick Mahomes, and TTU’s issues at the quarterback position continue to hinder and limit what they can do offensively. The Under will be in play due to both offenses struggling early on, but Baylor is worth a shot here at home for this Lone Star battle.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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