Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction - College Football Picks 10/7/23

Troy Trojans (3-2) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-2)

Game Info: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 4:00 pm (Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: Troy Trojans -16 -- Over/Under: 52 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Troy Trojans face off on Saturday in a college football showdown at Veterans Memorial Stadium. 

Arkansas State Looks for Fourth Straight Win

Arkansas State has won three games in a row and the offense has been good in all three games. In the last game against UMass the defense wasn’t elite, but the offense scored 52 points and that was enough for the easy victory. Jaylen Raynor had a strong game completing 20 of his 25 passes for 383 yards and six touchdowns. Raynor is going to need to have a big game here. Arkansas State is averaging 26 points while their defense is giving up 36.4 points per game. The defense has been the weakness and they are ranked 128th in college football in terms of points given up. 

Arkansas State Betting Trends

  • Arkansas State has lost each of its last eight October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight road games in October.
  • Arkansas State has won the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Four of Arkansas State's last five games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

Troy’s Defense Has Been Strong

Troy has won two games in a row and in two of the last three games the defense has been good. In the last game against Georgia State, Troy’s offense scored 28 points and the defense gave up only seven points. Gunnar Watson had a strong game completing 25 of his 30 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The defense also had two interceptions. Troy’s offense is averaging 26 points while their defense is givign up 23.8 points per game. The defense is ranked 58th. 

Troy Betting Trends

  • Troy has won each of its last six October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • The road team has covered the spread in six of the last seven games between Arkansas State and Troy.
  • Troy has won the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
  • Six of Troy's last seven October games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Shane’s Free Pick

Arkansas State is going to keep this game close. Troy’s defense has been good heading into this game but Arkansas State is going to find success again in this game. Arkansas State’s offense is going to get close to 30 points and that is going to be the difference here as the Red Wolves are going to keep this game close. Arkansas State is going to keep this game within a touchdown. Back Arkansas State against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Arkansas State +16

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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