Sam Houston vs Liberty Prediction - College Football Picks 10/5/23

Liberty Flames (4-0) vs Sam Houston Bearkats (0-4)

Game Info: Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Williams Stadium)

Betting Odds: Liberty Flames -17.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Sam Houston Bearkats will play the Liberty Flames in a Conference-USA game on Thursday night at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia. Sam Houston State is coming off of a crushing defeat to Jacksonville State, while Liberty has won four games in a row to start the season. 

Sam Houston Preview

The Sam Houston Bearkats are 0-4 (0-1) this season after they lost to Jacksonville State by a score of 35-28 in overtime last week. Sam Houston led 28-20 with about a minute left, but allowed Jacksonville State to tie the game with 13 seconds left, before losing in overtime. The Bearkats out gained Liberty by a total of 435-393 and forced three turnovers in the game. Sam Houston has also lost to Houston, Air Force, and BYU to start the season. The Sam Houston State offense is scoring 9.5 points per game with 154 passing yards per game and 65.5 rushing yards per game this year. Keegan Shoemaker has thrown for 476 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Bearkats this year. John Gentry has rushed for 133 yards, while Noah Smith has caught 17 passes for 156 yards and one score. The Sam Houston defense is allowing 25 points against per game this year and has allowed 73 points in their last two games. 

Liberty Preview

The Liberty Flames are 4-0 (2-0) this season after they defeated FIU by a score of 38-6 in their last game. Liberty led 24-6 at the half and was able to coast in the second half for the win. The Flames out gained FIU by a total of 520-211, but did turn the ball over three times in the game. Liberty has also defeated Buffalo, New Mexico State, and Bowling Green this year. The Liberty offense is averaging 40 points per game with 229.8 passing yards per game and 271.3 rushing yards per game, while going 48.9% on third downs. Kaidon Salter has thrown for 919 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 268 yards and five touchdowns for the Flames this season. Quinton Cooley has rushed for 323 yards, while Treon Sibley has caught 12 passes for 288 yards and two scores. The Liberty defense is giving up 18.5 points against per game this season.

Liberty Flames Team Facts

  • Liberty has won 12 of its last 13 October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Liberty has covered the spread in each of its last five games.
  • Seven of Liberty's last nine games at Arthur L. Williams Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Sam Houston Bearkats Team Facts

  • Sam Houston State has lost each of its last nine road games.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Liberty ranked T21st among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.615).
  • Liberty was one of only 27 FBS teams to lose 2+ games when leading after Q3 last season.


Sam Houston was in a great position to get their first win of the season last week, but they completely collapsed on defense in the last minute and couldn’t get it done in overtime. Liberty has started the season undefeated and they are averaging over 500 yards per game. The Flames are rushing for 271 yards per game, which is more than Sam Houston is averaging as an entire offense. The Bearkats have been really bad on offense, but they did look better in their last game. While I do think Liberty is the best team in CUSA, I am going to side with Sam Houston in this game. I think they are going to build upon their offensive success from last week and will be able to keep it close. 

David’s Pick Sam Houston +17.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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