Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-3) vs Texas State Bobcats (3-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Carlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M. Roberts Stadium)

Betting Odds: Southern Miss Golden Eagles +5.5 -- Over/Under: 61.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Texas State Bobcats will play the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in a Sun Belt game on Saturday night at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Texas State has won two games in a row, while Southern Miss has lost three games in a row coming into this game. 

Texas State Preview

The Texas State Bobcats are 3-1 this season after they defeated Nevada by a score of 35-24 in their last game. Texas State trailed 17-0 at halftime in this game, but they scored 35 points in a row to pull away in the second half for the win. The Bobcats out gained Nevada by a total of 574-353 and forced three turnovers in the game. Texas State defeated Baylor in Week 1, lost to UTSA in Week 2, and defeated Jackson State in Week 3. The Texas State offense is scoring 41.8 points per game with 273 passing yards per game and 212.3 rushing yards per game, while going 40.9% on third down conversions this season. TJ Finley has thrown for 1,055 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception for the Bobcats this year. Ismail Mahdi has rushed for 399 yards and four scores, while Kole Wilson has caught 17 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns. The Texas State defense is allowing 27.3 points against per game this year. 

Southern Miss Preview

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are 1-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Arkansas State by a score of 44-37 in their last game. Southern Miss was able to tie the game in the fourth quarter, but allowed Arkansas State to score the next 10 points to put the game out of reach. The Golden Eagles out gained Arkansas State by a total of 449-425 and turned the ball over two times in the loss. Southern Miss defeated Alcorn State in their first game, but they have lost three straight games to Florida State, Tulane, and Arkansas State. The Southern Miss offense is averaging 23.3 points per game with 210.5 passing yards per game and 129.5 rushing yards per game, while going 34.5% on third downs. Billy Wiles has thrown for 813 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Golden Eagles this year. Rodrigues Clark has rushed for 234 yards and two touchdowns, while Jakarius Caston has caught 13 passes for 246 yards and two scores. The Southern Miss defense is giving up 36.3 points against per game and was just torched by Texas State. 

Southern Miss Golden Eagles Team Facts

  • Southern Miss has lost each of its last three games.
  • Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games.
  • Southern Miss has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents at M. M. Roberts Stadium.
  • Five of Southern Miss' last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Texas State Bobcats Team Facts

  • Texas State has lost seven of its last eight road games.
  • Texas State has covered the spread in four of its last five road games.
  • Texas State has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents.
  • Four of Texas State's last five games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.


Southern Miss is looking to bounce back from a tough loss against Arkansas State, while Texas State is looking like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Bobcats have double-digit wins over Nevada and Baylor, but they will be on the road for this matchup. Both of these defenses have struggled to start the season, so we may be in for a shootout in this game. I really like how Texas State has played this season and I think Southern Miss is one of the bottom teams in the Sun Belt this year. Take Texas State here. 

David’s Pick Texas State -5.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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