Texas A&M at Arkansas Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2) vs Texas A&M Aggies (3-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 12:00 pm (AT&T Stadium)

Betting Odds: Arkansas Razorbacks +6.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas A&M Aggies will meet in Arlington for this year’s Southwest Classic this Saturday from AT&T Stadium. Arkansas and Texas A&M faced off in every season from 1934-1991 as members of the Southwest Conference, before renewing the series in 2009 prior to becoming SEC foes in 2012. Arkansas leads the all-time series 42-34-3, but A&M has won nine of the last ten meetings, including last year’s matchup by two, 23-21.

Texas A&M Aggies Preview

Texas A&M enters at 3-1 after defeating Auburn in College Station, 27-10. The Aggies used a strong defensive effort to hold the Tigers to just 200 yards, and they’ll attempt to open SEC play with a second straight win in Arlington this weekend. The A&M offense is scoring 39.8 ppg, while passing for 301.3 ypg, rushing for 149.5 ypg, and converting 49% of their third downs.

Texas A&M Player Notes

• An injury to Connor Weigman will now put Max Johnson into the QB1 spot, and he finished the win over Auburn well by going 7/11 for 123 yards with a pair of touchdown tosses. The former LSU quarterback gives A&M a luxury to turn to, as he holds experience in the SEC, and he’s been sharp since arriving in College Station in limited reps. Johnson has passed for 743 yards with seven touchdowns to no interceptions through seven appearances with the Aggies. 

• Junior back Amari Daniels leads A&M in rushing yards (234), after going for 85 yards against Auburn. Sophomore RB Le’Veon Miss led the way with 97 yards and a score in the win over the Tigers, and he’s up to 169 yards rushing for the season.

• Sophomore receiver Evan Stewart found the endzone in his return to the lineup last weekend, and he leads the Aggies in receptions (23) and receiving yards (307).

• Veteran wideout Ainias Smith followed up his 127-yard performance in the win over ULM with a team-lead 78 receiving yards, and he’s second on the team with 18 catches for 272 yards receiving.

• The A&M defense is allowing 17.7 points per game.


Arkansas Razorbacks Preview

Arkansas comes in at 2-2 after losing to LSU in Baton Rouge by three, 34-31. The Hogs nearly hung a second loss on the Tigers, but came up just short after losing on a last-second field goal, and they’ll look to avoid a third straight defeat here against A&M. The Arkansas offense is scoring 36.5 ppg, while passing for 236.3 ypg, rushing for 147.8 ypg, and converting 47.2% of their third downs.

Arkansas Player Notes

KJ Jefferson almost pulled it off in Death Valley last weekend, passing for 289 yards and three touchdowns, but he tossed a pair of costly picks in the loss to the Tigers. The senior quarterback has struggled in the last two second halves in defeats to BYU and LSU, and a third straight loss would heavily alter the Hogs SEC title hopes. Jefferson has thrown for 918 yards, with nine touchdowns to three interceptions, and he’s rushed for 128 yards and a score.

• Sophomore back Rashod Dubinion led the backfield with 78 yards in the loss to LSU, and he’s up to 174 rushing yards for the season. 

• Junior RB Raheim Sanders is set to return to the lineup this weekend, and after rushing for 1,426 yards in 2022, he may have a big effect on the Razorback offense.

• Senior wideout Andrew Armstrong has caught five passes or more in three of the first four games, and he leads Arkansas in receptions (23), receiving yards (273), and touchdowns (3).

• The Arkansas defense has allowed 22.75 points per game.


Texas A&M vs Arkansas Trends

A&M is 3-1 against the spread, with a 2-2 O/U record. 

Arkansas is 2-2 ATS, with a 3-1 over/under record.

• ARK has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

• Each of the last four Southwest Classic games at AT&T Stadium have gone Under the total points line.

Corey’s Free Pick

After falling just two points shy of a victory in last year’s meeting, on top of falling by three points in Death Valley to LSU, we should see a very motivated group of Hogs here in Arlington. Texas A&M will head into this one without starting quarterback Connor Weigman, and while Max Johnson has proven to be serviceable, this game will be within reach for Arkansas. A 2-3 start probably isn’t how KJ Jefferson envisioned his senior season going, so look for a stronger effort from him here in Jerry World Saturday. Raheim Sanders’ return will also be huge for the Razorbacks, and I like rolling with them here in a bounce back spots Spot Arkansas the points for this year’s Southwest Classic.

Corey’s Pick Arkansas to Cover

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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