San Diego State vs Air Force Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Air Force Falcons (4-0) vs San Diego State Aztecs (2-3)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 8:00 pm (Falcon Stadium)

Betting Odds: Air Force Falcons -10.5 -- Over/Under: 42.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: CBSSports Network Stream live sports and exclusive originals on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

The San Diego State Aztecs will play the Air Force Falcons in a Mountain West game on Saturday night at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, Colorado. San Diego State has lost three games in a row, while Air Force comes into this matchup undefeated. 

San Diego State Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs are 2-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Boise State by a score of 34-31 last week. San Diego State was tied at 17 at the half, but they allowed Boise State to go on a 10-0 run in the third quarter to create some separation. The Aztecs out gained Boise State by a total of 439-403, but did turn the ball over twice in the loss. San Diego State opened the season with two wins against Ohio and Idaho State, but has lost three games in a row to UCLA, Oregon State, and Boise State. The San Diego State offense is scoring 21.2 points per game with 194.8 passing yards per game and 151.4 rushing yards per game, while going 36.2% on third down attempts this year. Jalen Mayden has thrown for 942 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, while also rushing for 278 yards and three touchdowns for the Aztecs. Jaylon Armstead has rushed for 230 yards and four scores, while Mark Redman has caught 18 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. The SDSU defense is giving up 27.2 points against per game this season and has struggled in their last four games. 

Air Force Preview

The Air Force Falcons are 4-0 (2-0) this season after they defeated San Jose State by a score of 45-20 in their last game. Air Force trailed at halftime by a score of 20-17, but scored 28 unanswered points in the second half for the win. The Falcons out gained San Jose State by a total of 428-354 and rushed for 400 yards in the game. Air Force defeated Robert Morris, Sam Houston State, and Utah State in their first three games. The Air Force offense is averaging 36.3 points per game with 55.3 passing yards per game and 340.5 rushing yards per game, while going 58.8% on third down attempts this year. Zac Larrier has thrown for 221 yards and one touchdown, while rushing for 259 yards and three touchdowns for Air Force. Emmanuel Michel has rushed for 322 yards and six scores, while Jared Roznos has caught four passes for 166 yards and one touchdown. The Air Force defense is allowing 12.8 points against per game, but has allowed 41 points in their last two games. 

Air Force Falcons Team Facts

  • Air Force has won each of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • The road team has covered the spread in six of the last seven games between San Diego State and Air Force.
  • Air Force has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against conference opponents at Falcon Stadium.
  • Air Force has won the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents at Falcon Stadium.
  • Four of Air Force's last five September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

San Diego State Aztecs Team Facts

  • San Diego State has won six of its last seven September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • San Diego State has covered the spread in six of its last seven September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • San Diego State has won the first half in 14 of its last 15 road games against conference opponents.
  • Four of San Diego State's last five road games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Air Force ranked 2nd among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (6.6).
  • Air Force ranked 2nd among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.769).
  • San Diego State was one of only 14 FBS teams to lose 3+ games when leading at HT last season.
  • San Diego State ranked 15th among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (3.7).

Pick

Air Force comes into this game as a decent sized favorite, but they did struggle in the first half last week against San Jose State. San Diego State has lost three games in a row and their defense has allowed 34, 26, and 35 points in those losses. Air Force is the best rushing team in the country and they will face a San Diego State team that is allowing 164 rushing yards per game. I think we are going to see a close game in the first half, but I expect that Air Force rushing attack to wear down the SDSU defense. Take Air Force minus the points here. 

David’s Pick Air Force -10.5

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA, MLB, NHL Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Monday 4/22/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.

Dismiss