Missouri vs Vanderbilt Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-3) vs Missouri Tigers (4-0)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 4:00 pm (FirstBank Stadium)

Betting Odds: Vanderbilt Commodores +13.5 -- Over/Under: 54.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Missouri Tigers will play the Vanderbilt Commodores in a SEC game on Saturday afternoon at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Missouri comes into this matchup with an undefeated record, while Vanderbilt has lost three games in a row. 

Missouri Preview

The Missouri Tigers are 4-0 this season after they defeated Memphis by a score of 34-27 in their last game. Missouri trailed 10-7 in the first quarter, but they were able to score the next 17 points and never surrendered the lead after that. The Tigers out gained Memphis by a total of 542-399 and forced two turnovers in the win. Missouri defeated South Dakota, Middle Tennessee, and Kansas State in their first three games. The Missouri offense is averaging 30.5 points per game with 281.8 passing yards per game and 152 rushing yards per game, while going 36.4% on third downs this season. Brady Cook has thrown for 1,073 yards and seven touchdowns for the Tigers this year. Cody Schrader has rushed for 403 yards and two scores, while Luther Burden III has caught 32 passes for 504 yards and three touchdowns. The Missouri defense is giving up 20.8 points against per game, but has allowed 27 points in each of their last two games. 

Vanderbilt Preview

The Vanderbilt Commodores are 2-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Kentucky by a score of 45-28 last week. Vanderbilt fell down 24-0 in the second quarter, but did play much better in the second half, scoring 17 points. The Commodores were out gained by a total of 365-328 and turned the ball over four times in the loss. Vanderbilt defeated Hawaii and Alabama A&M in their first two games, but they have lost three straight to Wake Forest, UNLV, and Kentucky. The Vanderbilt offense is scoring 33.8 points per game with 277.2 passing yards per game and 108.6 rushing yards per game, while going 45.8% on third down attempts this year. AJ Swann (questionable) has thrown for 1,290 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions for the Commodores this year. Patrick Smith has rushed for 236 yards and two touchdowns, while Will Sheppard has caught 27 passes for 345 yards and six scores. The Vanderbilt defense is allowing 32.4 points against per game and has allowed 36, 40, and 45 points in their last three games. 

Vanderbilt Commodores Team Facts

  • Vanderbilt has lost 21 of its last 22 games against AP-ranked teams.
  • Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 11 September games at FirstBank Stadium.
  • Vanderbilt has lost the first half in 13 of its last 15 home games against conference opponents.
  • Each of Vanderbilt's last six September games at FirstBank Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Missouri Tigers Team Facts

  • Missouri has won each of its last 12 September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Missouri has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Five of Missouri's last six road games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Vanderbilt suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team last season (3).
  • Vanderbilt suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team last season (2).
  • Missouri ranked T32nd among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (10.8).
  • Missouri ranked 39th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game last season (9.6).

Pick

Missouri comes into this game after two close wins against Kansas State and Memphis, but they will be on the road for this one. Vanderbilt has really struggled in their last three games and will face a pretty solid Missouri defense in this matchup. Vanderbilt will definitely benefit from being at home, but their starting quarterback is questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has been a disaster recently and I can’t back them until their defense shows improvement. Take Missouri here. 

David’s Pick Missouri -13.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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