Michigan State at Iowa Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) vs Michigan State Spartans (2-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Kinnick Stadium)

Betting Odds: Iowa Hawkeyes -7 -- Over/Under: 39.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Iowa Hawkeyes will host the Michigan State Spartans for a Big Ten showdown this weekend from Kinnick Stadium on NBC. These two conference rivals had their series altered by alignment, and Iowa hold a slim head-to-head lead of, 24-22-2, after winning the most recent matchup back in 2020, 49-7.

Michigan State Preview

Michigan State comes in at 2-2 after losing to Maryland in East Lansing. The Spartans were blitzed in their conference opener by the Terps, and they’ll now travel for the first time this season against the Hawkeyes. The MSU offense is scoring 23.0 ppg, while passing for 266.0 ypg, rushing for 111.0 ypg, and converting 41.2% of their third downs.

Michigan State Player Notes

• Noah Kim struggled again in Big Ten action last week versus Maryland, only going 18/33 for 190 yards, with a touchdown and a pair of picks. The junior quarterback hasn’t been able to translate his non-conference success over into conference play, and he’s in for another stiff test here with the Iowa defense. Kim has passed for 897 yards, with six touchdowns to three interceptions thru four games.

• UConn transfer Nathan Carter has done his part, totaling 120 yards or more in three of the first four games, and he leads MSU in rushing (369), with four touchdowns.

• Veteran wideout Tre Mosley leads Sparty in receptions (13) for 157 receiving yards.

• The MSU defense is allowing 23.2 points per game

Iowa Hawkeyes Preview

Iowa enters at 3-1 after falling to Penn State on the road, 31-0. The Hawkeyes fell victim to the White Out in Happy Valley, and after being silenced by the Nittany Lions, they’ll seek different results this weekend at home. The Iowa offense is scoring 21.3 ppg, while passing for 127.3 ypg, rushing for 118.5 ypg, and converting 36% of their third downs.

Iowa Player Notes

• Cade McNamara will look to put a very difficult outing at Penn State behind him, as he only went 5/14 for 42 yards. It’s hard to blame the former Michigan QB for folding to such an environment, and with what we’ve seen offensively from this program over the past few seasons, it’s apparent there’s more of a problem within the playcalling versus the signal caller. McNamara will need to play better soon with Wisconsin transfer Deacon Hill looking over his shoulder, and he’s passed for 459 yards with four touchdowns to three interceptions through four games.

• Leshon Williams didn’t get much going against PSU either, but he leads the Hawkeyes with 173 rushing yards on 25 touches.

• A season-ending injury Luke Lachey has left the Iowa receiving corps looking for answers, and former UM tight end Erick All is the only other player with ten or more receptions.

• The Iowa defense has allowed 17.0 ppg.

Michigan State vs Iowa Trends

• Michigan State is 2-2 against the spread, with a 1-3 O/U record.

• Iowa is 2-2 ATS, with a 1-3 over/under record.

• MSU’s last five games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

• IOW have won 13 of its last 14 September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Corey’s Free Pick

Two struggling Big Ten clubs will collide this Saturday, and with both schools looking for answers, I like leaning on the one thing we know will show up, and that is the Iowa defense. The Hawkeyes may just possess the worse offense in the Power Five, but they also carry one of the best defensive units in the nation, and they should come out motivated after last weekend’s result at Penn State. Michigan State is in for a long campaign after making a mid-season head coaching change, so let’s trust the longevity and defensive prowess on the Iowa sidelines for this Big Ten battle. Give the military matchup-like Under a look as well.