Iowa State at Oklahoma Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) vs Iowa State Cyclones (2-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: Oklahoma Sooners -14 -- Over/Under: 54.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Iowa State Cyclones will head down to Norman to meet the Oklahoma Sooners in Big 12 action this weekend from Gaylord Memorial Stadium on FS1. Oklahoma and Iowa State have met in nearly every season since 1928, and the Sooners hold a massive 79-7-2 series lead, after winning three straight matchups. 

Iowa State Cyclones Preview

Iowa State comes in at 2-2 after defeating Oklahoma State in Ames by a touchdown, 34-27. The Cyclones came thru with their best offensive outing of the season versus the Cowboys, and they’ll now attempt to double down on the Sooner State this Saturday. The ISU offense is scoring 21.0 ppg, while passing for 225.0 ypg, rushing for 83.3 ypg, and converting 31.6% of their third downs.

Iowa State Player Notes

Rocco Becht came thru with his best outing of the season in the win over Oklahoma State, passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. The sophomore quarterback struggled during  non-conference play, but his effort last weekend may be a step in the direction, and he’ll attempt to keep rolling here against OU. Becht has passed for 897 yards with seven touchdowns to three interceptions through four games.

• Sophomore back Eli Sanders led the backfield with 58 rushing yards and a score in the win over the Cowboys.  

• Junior wideout Jaylin Noel went off for 146 yards versus OK State, and he leads ISU in receptions (20) and receiving yards (202). 

• The ISU defense has allowed 18.5 points per game.


Oklahoma Sooners Preview

Oklahoma comes in at 4-0 after defeating Cincinnati on the road by two scores, 20-6. The Sooners surprisingly went out and won a game on the defensive end after holding the Bearcats to just six points, and they’ll look to keep rolling with a Red River date at the Texas State Fair looming. The OU offense is scoring 46.8 ppg, while passing for 349.0 ypg, rushing for 157.8 ypg, and converting 57.4% of their third downs.

Oklahoma Player Notes

Dillon Gabriel managed last week’s contest well in Cincy, passing for 322 yards, with a touchdown rush and toss. The senior quarterback has been effective through four starts, and after missing last year’s Red River matchup, he’ll look to carry that momentum into next weekend with a strong effort at home this Saturday. Gabriel has passed for 1,227 yards, with twelve touchdowns to one interception on the season.

• The Sooners have played through three backs, and veteran RB Marcus Major led the way with 63 yards on 15 touches versus the Cyclones last weekend.

• Michigan transfer Andrew Anthony surpassed the 100-yard mark in consecutive games, and he leads OU in receptions (21) and receiving yards (371). 

• Senior wideout Drake Stoops, son of former legendary Sooner coach Bob, scored twice in the over Tulsa, and he’s second on the team with 20 catches. 

• Freshman wideout Nic Anderson burst onto the scene with 120 yards and three touchdown catches in the win over Tulsa.

• The OU defense is allowing 8.5 ppg. 


Iowa State vs Oklahoma Trends

• ISU is 2-2 against the spread, with a 1-3 O/U record. 

OU is 4-0 ATS, with a 2-2 over/under record.

• Four of Oklahoma's last five home games against Iowa State have gone OVER the total points line.

Corey’s Free Pick

Oklahoma looks like the real deal through four games, and after showing necessary improvements on the defensive end, I like their chances to roll into this Red River matchup unblemished. Iowa State’s offensive breakthrough may be short lived, as they more than likely won’t experience the same success they had against Oklahoma State in Norman. The three-touchdown margin feels a bit stiff, so let’s lean on the Sooners to do the heavy lifting here, and take the Over for this Big 12 matchup.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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