Illinois vs Purdue Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) vs Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Ross-Ade Stadium)

Betting Odds: Purdue Boilermakers -1 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Illinois Fighting Illini will play the Purdue Boilermakers in a Big Ten game on Saturday afternoon at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana. Illinois was able to avoid an upset attempt by FAU over the weekend, while Purdue lost to Wisconsin last Friday night. 

Illinois Preview

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 2-2 (0-1) this season after they defeated FAU by a score of 23-17 in their last game. Illinois trailed 10-0 after the first quarter, but they scored 23 straight points to secure the win. The Fighting Illini out gained FAU by a total of 510-353 and turned the ball over two times in the game. Illinois opened the season with a two-point win over Toledo, but lost the next two games against Kansas and Penn State. The Illinois offense is scoring 22.3 points per game with 246.8 passing yards per game and 148 rushing yards per game, while going 37.8% on third down attempts this season. Luke Altmyer has thrown for 874 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while rushing for 146 yards and three touchdowns this year. Reggie Love III has rushed for 248 yards and one touchdown, while Isaiah Williams has caught 24 passes for 333 yards. The Illinois defense is allowing 27.3 points against per game and has really struggled so far this year. 

Purdue Preview

The Purdue Boilermakers are 1-3 (0-1) this season after they lost to Wisconsin by a score of 38-17 in their last game. Purdue trailed 24-3 early in the third quarter, but they were able to cut the lead to 10 points to start the fourth. The Boilermakers out gained Wisconsin by a total of 396-388, but turned the ball over three times in the loss. Purdue has lost to Fresno State and Syracuse, but did beat Virginia Tech on the road in Week 2. The Purdue offense is averaging 24 points per game with 256.8 passing yards per game and 140.5 rushing yards per game, while going 41.1% on third down attempts. Hudson Card has thrown for 1,027 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Boilermakers this season. Devin Mockobee has rushed for 212 yards and two touchdowns, while Deion Burks has caught 15 passes for 294 yards and three scores. The Purdue defense is giving up 32.3 points against per game this season. 

Purdue Boilermakers Team Facts

  • Purdue has lost five of its last eight matches as a favorite when playing with a rest advantage.
  • Purdue has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Each of the last three games between Illinois and Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Illinois Fighting Illini Team Facts

  • Illinois has lost 17 of its last 18 September games as an underdog.
  • Illinois has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games.
  • Each of Illinois' last six September games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Purdue ranked T38th among FBS teams for H2 win percentage last season (.571).
  • Purdue ranked 39th among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (4.7).
  • Illinois ranked 3rd among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (6.7).
  • Illinois ranked T4th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.692).


Both of these teams have struggled to start the 2023 season, but Illinois does have one more win than Purdue has. Illinois was lucky to get past Toledo in the season opener, but they have allowed a ton of yards and points on defense. Purdue did get a win at Virginia Tech, but their defense has been just as bad as the Illinois defense. I really don’t trust this Illinois team, especially on the road, so I am going with Purdue here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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