Houston at Texas Tech Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Houston Player Notes

• Donovan Smith bounced back against a rugged Sam Houston defense, going 31/40 for 294 passing yards with a touchdown toss. The junior quarterback will be coming into a revenge spot here in Lubbock, as he started over a handful of games for TTU last season, and he’ll look to avenge a rough outing against TCU in their conference opener. Smith has thrown for 1.012 yards with five touchdowns to three interceptions, and added 104 yards and three more scores on the ground through four contests.

• Freshman back Parker Jenkins broke through with 105 yards and three scores in the win over SHSU.

• Sophomore wideout Samuel Brown didn’t reach the 100-yard mark for the first time last week, as Houston held a sizable lead and deferred to the ground, but he leads the team in receptions (24) and receiving yards (405). 

• Second-year receiver Matthew Golden led the way with 92 yards and a score, and he’s second on the team with 22 catches for 244 receiving yards, with a team-high four touchdown grabs.

• The Houston defense has allowed 25.0 points per game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview

Texas Tech comes in at 1-3 after losing to West Virginia in Morgantown by a touchdown, 20-13. The Red Raiders have now dropped three of their first four games by one score or less, and they’ll look to turn things around against their in-state foes here Saturday. The TTU offense is scoring 29.3 ppg, while passing for 244.0 ypg, rushing for 162.0 ypg, and converting 36.1% of their third downs.

TTU Player Notes

• Texas Tech lost starting quarterback Tyler Shough, and they’ll now have to turn to hometown product Behren Morton for this matchup. The sophomore QB ironically unseated Donovan Smith as the starter last season, and after struggling versus WVU, it’ll be very interesting to see how this one plays out. Morton only went 13/37 for 158 yards and a score in Morgantown last weekend.

• Senior back Tahj Brooks has been very effective out of the backfield, and after surpassing the 150-yard mark in back-to-back contests, he leads TTU in rushing with 417 yards on 62 touches.

• Sophomore wideout Jerand Bradley has scored in three of the first four games, and he leads the Red Raiders in receptions (20) and receiving yards (241). 

• The TTU defense is allowing 24.0 points per game.

Houston vs Texas Tech Trends

Houston is 2-2 against the spread, with a 2-2 O/U record. 

Texas Tech is 1-3 ATS, with a 1-3 over/under record.

TTU has won each of its last 16 September games as a home favorite.

Corey’s Free Pick

Texas Tech’s first month of action has gone south, starting with an overtime loss in Wyoming, up until losing their starting QB en route to losing by a touchdown to West Virginia. The Cougars will now have to face a very motivated Donovan Smith, who was benched in Lubbock last season, and their troubled September may just wind up ending on a sour note. All three of TTU’s losses have been by one possession, so this one may likely be contested as well. Houston figured things out offensively after struggling versus TCU, and I like spotting them the points with the uncertainty at Texas Tech right now, with the Under also in play, as both Lone Star schools will be leaning on a physical here in conference play.