Charlotte vs SMU Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

SMU Mustangs (2-2) vs Charlotte 49ers (1-3)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Gerald J. Ford Stadium)

Betting Odds: SMU Mustangs -23.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Charlotte 49ers will play the SMU Mustangs in an AAC game on Saturday night at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Charlotte has lost three games in a row, while SMU has lost two of their last three. 

Charlotte Preview

The Charlotte 49ers are 1-3 this season after they lost to Florida by a score of 22-7 last week. Charlotte was only able to find the end zone once in the game, but they did a solid job of limiting Florida and only lost by 15 points. The 49ers were out gained by a total of 395-211, but did force two turnovers in the loss. Charlotte opened the season with a win over South Carolina State, but they have lost three games in a row to Maryland, Georgia State, and Florida. The Charlotte offense is averaging 19 points per game with 178.8 passing yards per game and 127.8 rushing yards per game, while going 24% on third down conversions this year. Jalon Jones has thrown for 363 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, while rushing for 262 yards and three touchdowns for the 49ers this season. Durrell Robinson has rushed for 117 yards and one touchdown, while Jack Hestera has caught 15 passes for 202 yards and one score. The Charlotte defense is giving up 26 points against per game this year, but they did look better against Florida. 

SMU Preview

The SMU Mustangs are 2-2 this season after they lost to TCU by a score of 34-17 in their last game. The Mustangs only trailed 14-10 at the half, but TCU outscored them 20-7 in the second half. SMU was out gained by a total of 457-416, but turned the ball over twice in the loss. SMU defeated Louisiana Tech in Week 1, lost to Oklahoma in Week 2, and defeated Prairie View in Week 3. The SMU offense is scoring 32.3 points per game with 286.3 passing yards per game and 165.3 rushing yards per game, while going 38.2% on third down attempts. Preston Stone has thrown for 1,056 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions for the Mustangs this year. Jaylan Knighton has rushed for 182 yards, while Jordan Hudson has caught eight passes for 159 yards and two scores. The SMU defense is allowing 19 points against per game this season. 

SMU Mustangs Team Facts

  • SMU has won each of its last 20 September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • SMU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a home favorite.
  • SMU has won the first quarter in 13 of its last 17 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
  • SMU has won the first half in 11 of its last 14 games against conference opponents at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
  • Five of SMU's last six September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Charlotte 49ers Team Facts

  • Charlotte has lost 11 of its last 12 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • The road team has covered the spread in nine of Charlotte's last 11 games.
  • Charlotte has won the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
  • Each of Charlotte's last five September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • SMU ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (9.3).
  • SMU ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.615).

Pick

SMU comes into this game as a pretty big favorite, but Charlotte just played Florida very tough last week. SMU has been able to move the ball pretty well this season, except against Oklahoma in Week 2. While Charlotte did look better on defense against Florida, they did allow 38 points to Maryland and 41 points to Georgia State. I think SMU is going to have a huge day through the air and I like them to win big in this matchup.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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