Boise State vs Memphis Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Memphis Tigers (3-1) vs Boise State Broncos (2-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 4:00 pm (Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium)

Betting Odds: Memphis Tigers -3 -- Over/Under: 60 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Boise State Broncos will play the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday afternoon at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. Boise State has won two games in a row, while Memphis is looking to bounce back after a loss to Missouri last week. 

Boise State Preview

The Boise State Broncos are 2-2 (1-0) this season after they defeated San Diego State by a score of 34-31 last week. Boise State led this game by 10 points heading into the fourth quarter, but San Diego State cut the lead to three early in the fourth. Boise State was able to add a touchdown with about two minutes left to seal the win. The Broncos were out gained by a total of 439-403, but did force two turnovers in the game. Boise State opened the season with losses to Washington and UCF, but has bounced back with wins over North Dakota and SDSU. The Boise State offense is scoring 27.8 points per game with 224.8 passing yards per game and 171 rushing yards per game, while going 46.6% on third down attempts. Taylen Green has thrown for 738 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, while also rushing for 128 yards and two touchdowns this year. Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 407 yards and six scores, while Eric McAlister has caught 20 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns. The Boise State defense is giving up 30.8 points against per game, but that number is inflated due to allowing 56 points to Washington in the opener.

Memphis Preview

The Memphis Tigers are 3-1 (1-0) this season after they lost to Missouri by a score of 34-27 in their last game. Memphis led 10-7 at the end of the first quarter, but Missouri was able to score the next 17 points and they never gave up the lead. The Tigers were out gained by Missouri by a total of 542-399 and turned the ball over two times in the game. Memphis opened the season with three straight wins over Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas State, and Navy. The Memphis offense is averaging 37 points per game with 279 passing yards per game and 157.8 rushing yards per game, while going 34.5% on third down conversions this year. Seth Henigan has thrown for 1,107 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions for the Tigers this season. Blake Watson has rushed for 342 yards and four scores, while Roc Taylor has caught 22 passes for 297 yards and one touchdown. The Memphis defense is allowing 18.8 points against per game, but has allowed 24+ points in two straight contests. 

Memphis Tigers Team Facts

  • Memphis has won 21 of its last 22 September games at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
  • Memphis has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Memphis has won the first quarter in 17 of its last 21 games against non-conference opponents.
  • Memphis has won the first half in 10 of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
  • Each of Memphis' last four September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Boise State Broncos Team Facts

  • Boise State has won five of its last six road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Boise State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Four of Boise State's last five road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Memphis ranked 10th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (18.5).
  • Memphis was one of only 14 FBS teams to lose 3+ games when leading at HT last season.
  • Boise State ranked T15th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (17.6).
  • Boise State ranked 17th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (9.6).


Memphis comes into this game after a very tough loss to Missouri last week, which could have been a huge win for the program, while Boise State opened up Mountain West play with a win over San Diego State. The Boise State defense has allowed quite a few yards this year and will take on a Memphis team that is racking up over 430 yards per game. The Memphis defense has had some issues in the last two games, but I don’t love the Boise State offensive attack. Give me the Tigers here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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