Ball State vs Western Michigan Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Western Michigan Broncos (1-3) vs Ball State Cardinals (1-3)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Waldo Stadium)

Betting Odds: Western Michigan Broncos -1.5 -- Over/Under: 50.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Ball State Cardinals and Western Michigan Broncos face off on Saturday in a Week 5 college football showdown at Waldo Stadium.

Ball State Has Some Issues

Ball State has played a tough schedule, but they have struggled in games that they should have been able to keep close. Ball State comes into this game with a 1-3 record overall and in the last game against Georgia Southern they looked awful. The offense only scored three points but the defense gave up 40 points. Kadin Semonza completed 11 of his 23 passes for 123 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. Ball State is averaging 16.3 points while their defense is giving up 34 points per game. In this game if Ball State wants any success they need to find a way to get the offense going here.

Ball State Betting Trends

Ball State has lost each of its last nine September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Ball State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Each of Ball State's last six road games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Western Michigan Looks to Snap Win Streak

Western Michigan won their first game of the season against St. Francis but since that point they have lost three games in a row. In the last game against Toledo, the defense was awful giving up 49 points and that led to the defeat. Against Syracuse and Iowa they only scored 17 points total. Western Michigan is averaging 20.8 points while their defense is giving up 38.8 points per game. Running back Jalen Buckley has had a big season rushing for 507 yards and four touchdowns.

Western Michigan Betting Trends

Western Michigan has won each of its last 15 September games as a favorite.
Western Michigan has covered the spread in five of its last six September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Each of Western Michigan's last five September home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Ball State vs Western Michigan Facts

Western Michigan was one of only 26 FBS teams to win 2+ games when trailing after Q3 last season.
Western Michigan ranked T28th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (10.6).
Ball State ranked 9th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.667).
Ball State was one of only 20 FBS teams to win 3+ games when trailing at HT last season.

Shane’s Free Pick

These are both offenses that have had issues this season and it’s going to be no different in this game. Ball State especially has had issues scoring points and I expect they are going to really struggle to get any type of offense going here. This is a game that could finish 10-7 and it wouldn’t be all that shocking. It’s a true toss up on who’s going to win, but the under is going to cash.