Arkansas State vs UMass Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Massachusetts Minutemen (1-4) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium)

Betting Odds: Massachusetts Minutemen -2 -- Over/Under: 56 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves will play the UMass Minutemen in a non-conference game on Saturday afternoon at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts. Arkansas State has won two games in a row, while UMass is looking to snap a four game losing streak. 

Arkansas State Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 2-2 (1-0) this season after they defeated Southern Miss by a score of 44-37 in their last game. Arkansas State blew a 17-point lead in the second half, but they were able to pull away by scoring 10 of the final 13 points in the game. The Red Wolves were out gained by a total of 449-425, but did force two turnovers in the win. Arkansas State lost their first two games of the season to Oklahoma and Memphis, but they did bounce back with wins against Stony Brook and Southern Miss. The Arkansas State offense is averaging 19.5 points per game with 174.8 passing yards per game and 162.3 rushing yards per game, while going 35.2% on third down conversions. Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 311 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, while rushing for 154 yards and two touchdowns for the Red Wolves this season. Ja’Quez Cross has rushed for 289 yards and two scores, while Courtney Jackson has caught 10 passes for 199 yards and three touchdowns. The Arkansas State defense is allowing 38.5 points against per game this season, but that number was really blown out by Oklahoma’s 73 points in the opener. 

UMass Preview

The UMass Minutemen are 1-4 this season after they lost to New Mexico by a score of 34-31 in overtime last week. UMass trailed by 14 points at the half, but they were able to outscore UNM by a total of 14-0 in the second half to force overtime. The Minutemen out gained their opponent by a total of 495-328, but did go 0-3 on fourth down attempts. UMass defeated New Mexico State in the season opener, but they have lost to Auburn, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, and New Mexico in four straight games. The UMass offense is scoring 26.2 points per game with 247 passing yards per game and 144 rushing yards per game, while going 35.5% on third down conversions this year. Carlos Davis (questionable) has thrown for 886 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Minutemen this season. Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams has rushed for 463 yards and four scores, while Anthony Simpson has caught 19 passes for 393 yards and two touchdowns. The UMass defense is giving up 36.6 points against per game and has not played well this season. 

Massachusetts Minutemen Team Facts

  • Massachusetts has lost 13 of its last 14 games.
  • Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
  • Massachusetts has lost the first half in nine of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
  • Six of Massachusetts' last seven home games in September have gone OVER the total points line.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Team Facts

  • Arkansas State has lost 16 of its last 17 road games.
  • Arkansas State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Three of Arkansas State's last four games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Arkansas State was one of only 14 FBS teams to lose 3+ games when leading at HT last season.
  • Arkansas State was one of only 27 FBS teams to lose 2+ games when leading after Q3 last season.

Pick

Arkansas State was on the wrong end of a lot of jokes after starting the season with a 73-0 loss against Oklahoma, but they have bounced back and are now sitting at 2-2 through four games. UMass comes into this game on a four game losing streak, but they will be at home, where they are 0-2 straight up this year. Both of these defenses are giving up over 421 yards per game, but Arkansas State has played Oklahoma and Memphis. UMass has been right in their last two games, losing by two points to Eastern Michigan and in overtime to New Mexico, and I am going to take them to snap the losing streak here. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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