Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction - College Football Picks 9/30/23

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2) vs Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 9:00 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

Betting Odds: Mississippi State Bulldogs +14.5 -- Over/Under: 47 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN Stream live sports and exclusive originals on ESPN+. Sign up now!

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs face off on Saturday in a Week 5 college football showdown at Davis Wade Stadium.

Alabama Still Has A Quarterback Issue

Alabama comes into this game with a 3-1 record overall and all season the offense hasn’t been good enough. In the first game Alabama scored 56 points against Middle Tennessee, but in the last three games they have scored 24 points. In the last game against Ole Miss, Alabama was able to secure a 24-10 victory. In the first half they only scored six points but in the second half they pulled away. Even though they won, there are still a lot of question marks surrounding this offense, especially the quarterback play. Jalen Milroe completed 17 of his 21 passes for 255 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also rushed 16 times for 28 yards. In this game Milroe is going to need to be good here.

Alabama Betting Trends

The team ranked 12th in the AP Poll has won each of its last 13 games.
Alabama has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games as a favorite against Mississippi State.
Alabama has lost the first half in each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
Each of Alabama's last four road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Another Long Season for Mississippi State?

It looks like it could be another long season for Mississippi State and they come into this game with a 2-2 record overall. Two games ago against LSU, Mississippi State was defeated 41-14 and in the last game against South Carolina they were defeated 37-30. Even though they lost the last game the Bulldogs did get good play from quarterback Will Rogers. Rogers completed 30 of his 48 passes for 487 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The running game is still not good enough for this team and the top rusher only had 27 points in the last game. Alabama is averaging 30.8 points while their defense is giving up 27.3 points per game.

Mississippi State Trends

The favorite has won 14 of Mississippi State's last 15 games at Davis Wade Stadium.
Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight home games against top-15 AP-ranked teams.
Mississippi State has lost the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
Each of Mississippi State's last five games as an underdog against Alabama have gone UNDER the total points line.

Alabama vs Mississippi State Facts

Mississippi State ranked T16th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.615).
Mississippi State ranked T23rd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.0).
Alabama ranked 4th among FBS teams for points per game last season (41.1).
Alabama ranked T5th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.769).

Shane’s Free Pick

I’m still not sold on Jalen Milroe and he’s going to have issues again here. Alabama is used to score 40 points a game, but they are going to have issues getting to 30 points here. Will Rogers threw for 487 yards and a touchdown and he’s going to have a big game here. I don’t think Mississippi State is going to win this game but they are going to keep this within a couple of touchdowns. Back Mississippi State against the spread.