Middle Tennessee vs WKU Prediction - College Football Picks 9/28/23

WKU Hilltoppers (2-2) vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-3)

Game Info: Thursday, September 28, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium)

Betting Odds: WKU Hilltoppers -6 -- Over/Under: 60 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face off on Thursday in a college football showdown at Houchens Industries–L. T. Smith Stadium.

Middle Tennessee Has Slow Start

Middle Tennessee has gotten out to a slow start to the season but they have also played a really tough schedule. Middle Tennesse has losses this season to Alabama, Missouri, and Colorado State. The only win for the Blue Raiders came against Murray State and that was a dominant victory. They scored 35 points and that was enough to secure the victory. In the last game against Colorado State they were competitive, but the defense gave up 31 points and that led to the defeat. Nicholas Vattiato completed 30 his 41 passes for 279 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Blue Raiders are averaging 21 points while their defense is giving up 31 points per game. The offense is ranked 110th while the defense is ranked 108th. The running game for this team hasn’t been good enough, and that is going to need to be better here. 

Middle Tennessee Betting Trends

  • Middle Tennessee has won three of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • The underdog has covered the spread in six of Middle Tennessee's last seven games.
  • Nine of Middle Tennessee's last 11 September games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Western Kentucky Looks to Avoid Third Straight Loss

Western Kentucky won the first two games of the season, but they have lost two straight games. Two games ago against Ohio State, Western Kentucky lost 63-10 and in the last game against Troy they lost 27-24. In the last game against Troy they were up 7-0 but the defense couldn’t hold on and that led to the defeat. Even though they lost the last game, quarterback Austin Reed had a strong game. Reed completed 23 of his 39 passes for 268 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. 

Western Kentucky Betting Trends

  • Western Kentucky has won each of its last four games against Middle Tennessee.
  • Western Kentucky has covered the spread in six of its last seven home games against conference opponents.
  • Six of Western Kentucky's last seven September games as a home favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky Facts

  • Western Kentucky was one of only five FBS teams to win 4+ games when trailing after Q1 last season.
  • Western Kentucky ranked T10th among FBS teams for H1 points per game last season (20.2).
  • Middle Tennessee ranked T30th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.538).
  • Middle Tennessee ranked T32nd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (7.6).

Shane’s Free Pick

Middle Tennessee has value in this game Midde Tennesse has been tested and Western Kentucky’s offense wasn’t elite in the last game. Middle Tennessee can run up the score and they are going to find success again in this game. Look for Middle Tennessee to get over the 30 point mark in this game and that is going to be the difference as Middle Tennessee is going to get the job done. Back Middle Tennessee against the spread. 

Shane’s Pick Middle Tennessee +6

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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