WKU vs Troy Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Troy Trojans (1-2) vs WKU Hilltoppers (2-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium)

Betting Odds: Troy Trojans -3.5 -- Over/Under: 59 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will play the Troy Trojans in a non-conference game on Saturday afternoon at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama. Western Kentucky is coming off of a blowout loss against Ohio State, while Troy lost a tough game with James Madison last week. 

Western Kentucky Preview

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 2-1 this season after they lost to Ohio State by a score of 63-10 in their last game. Western Kentucky was competitive early in the game, as the score was 14-10 early in the second quarter, but Ohio State finished the game with 49 straight points. Western Kentucky was out gained by a total of 562-284 and turned the ball over four times in the loss. The Hilltoppers defeated Houston Christian by a score of 52-22 in Week 2 and South Florida by a score of 41-24 in Week 1. The Western Kentucky offense is averaging 34.3 points per game with 286 passing yards per game and 108 rushing yards per game, while going 33.3% on third down conversions. Austin Reed has thrown for 796 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception for the Hilltoppers this year. Davion Ervin-Poindexter has rushed for 100 yards, while Malachi Corley has caught 12 passes for 143 yards and one score. The Western Kentucky defense is allowing 36.3 points against per game and was torched by Ohio State last week. 

Troy Preview

The Troy Trojans are 1-2 this year after they lost to James Madison by a score of 16-14 last week. Troy trailed 13-7 at halftime, but was able to cut the lead to 16-14 early in the fourth quarter, but missed a field goal and turned it over on downs with their last two possessions. Troy out gained JMU by a total of 320-290, but did turn the ball over once in the loss. Troy lost to Kansas State by a score of 42-13 in Week 2, but did defeat Stephen F. Austin by a score of 48-30 in their opener. The Troy offense is scoring 25 points per game with 248.7 passing yards per game and 133.3 rushing yards per game, while going 35.6% on third down attempts. Gunnar Watson has thrown for 697 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions for the Trojans this season. Kimani Vidal has rushed for 358 yards, while Jabre Barber has caught 11 passes for 156 yards and two scores. The Trojans defense is giving up 29.3 points against per game this year, but played well against JMU last week. 

Troy Trojans Team Facts

  • Troy has won 11 of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Troy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
  • Troy has lost the first half in five of its last six games against opponents from the Conference USA.
  • Seven of Troy's last eight September games as a home favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team Facts

  • Western Kentucky has won six of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Western Kentucky has covered the spread in six of its last seven September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Western Kentucky has won the first half in seven of its last nine games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.
  • Seven of Western Kentucky's last eight games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Troy ranked 4th among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (3.6).
  • Troy was one of only six FBS teams to win 3+ games when trailing after Q3 last season.
  • Western Kentucky was one of only five FBS teams to win 4+ games when trailing after Q1 last season.
  • Western Kentucky ranked T10th among FBS teams for H1 points per game last season (20.2).


Troy comes into this game trying to snap their two game losing streak, while Western Kentucky will try to pick themselves up after last week’s blowout loss. The Western Kentucky defense has been an issue in their first three games, but they will play a Troy team that has only scored 27 points combined in their last two games. Troy played James Madison tough and had a couple of chances to get the win but couldn’t get it done. I think the Troy defense will be the difference in this game and I like them to get the win. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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