Western Michigan vs Toledo Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Toledo Rockets (2-1) vs Western Michigan Broncos (1-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 1:30 pm (Glass Bowl)

Betting Odds: Toledo Rockets -21 -- Over/Under: 54 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Western Michigan Broncos will play the Toledo Rockets in a MAC game on Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. Western Michigan has lost two straight games against Power Five opponents, while Toledo has won two games in a row after opening the season with a loss.

Western Michigan Preview

The Western Michigan Broncos are 1-2 this season after they lost to Iowa by a score of 41-10 in their last game. Western Michigan led after the first quarter and they only trailed 14-10 at the half, but they weren’t able to score any points after halftime. Western Michigan was out gained by a total of 387-239, but did win the turnover battle by a total of 2-1. The Broncos lost to Syracuse by a score of 48-7 in Week 2, but defeated St. Francis by a score of 35-17 in their first game. The Western Michigan offense is averaging 17.3 points per game with 171 passing yards per game and 184.3 rushing yards per game, while going 40% on third downs this season. Western Michigan has played two quarterbacks this season, with Jack Salopek throwing for 278 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while Treyson Bourguet has thrown for 188 yards and one score. Jalen Buckley has rushed for 311 yards and two touchdowns, while Kenneth Womack has caught 10 passes for 132 yards this year. The Western Michigan defense is giving up 35.3 points against per game this season. 

Toledo Preview

The Toledo Rockets are 2-1 this season after they defeated San Jose State by a score of 21-17 last week. Toledo trailed this game 17-7 in the fourth quarter, but they were able to score the final 14 points in the game for the win, with the last touchdown coming on a pick six. Toledo out gained San Jose State by a total of 321-268, but did turn the ball over three times in the game. The Rockets defeated Texas Southern by a score of 71-3 in Week 2, but lost 30-28 at Illinois in Week 1. The Toledo offense is scoring 40 points per game with 233 passing yards per game and 195.7 rushing yards per game, while going 57.5% on third downs. Dequan Finn has thrown for 560 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions, while also rushing for 144 yards and two scores. Peny Boone has rushed for 191 yards and three touchdowns, while Jerjuan Newton has caught 12 passes for 137 yards and three scores for Toledo this season. The Rockets defense is allowing 16.7 points against per game and has been solid in the first three contests. 

Toledo Rockets Team Facts

  • Toledo has won 16 of its last 18 September games at Glass Bowl.
  • The home team has covered the spread in six of the last seven games between Western Michigan and Toledo.
  • Four of Toledo's last five games as a favorite against Western Michigan have gone UNDER the total points line.

Western Michigan Broncos Team Facts

  • The home team has won each of Western Michigan's last four games.
  • Western Michigan has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 September games as a road underdog.
  • Each of Western Michigan's last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Toledo ranked 18th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.2).
  • Toledo was one of only 20 FBS teams to win 3+ games when trailing at HT last season.
  • Western Michigan was one of only 26 FBS teams to win 2+ games when trailing after Q3 last season.
  • Western Michigan ranked T28th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (10.6).


Toledo comes into this game with a 2-1 record, but they probably should be 3-0 after blowing a big lead against Illinois in Week 1. Western Michigan’s defense has been torched so far this season and they go up against a high scoring Toledo team in this matchup. Toledo is the better team in this matchup, on both sides of the ball, and I expect them to win easily at home. The Broncos defense is going to struggle to contain Toledo here, so take the Rockets to win big at home. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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