Texas at Baylor Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Baylor Bears (1-2) vs Texas Longhorns (3-0)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 7:30 pm (McLane Stadium)

Betting Odds: Baylor Bears +8 -- Over/Under: 52.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Texas Longhorns will head up to Waco to face the Baylor Bears in Big 12 play this Saturday from McLane Stadium on ABC. Texas’ exit from the conference is set to halt over a handful of longtime rivalries, with their in-state matchup with Baylor likely to be casualty, as they’ve faced off in every season since 1923. The Longhorns lead the all-time series, 80-28-4, after winning last year’s contest at home, but they’ve split the previous five meetings.

Texas Longhorns Preview

Texas comes in at 3-0 after defeating Wyoming in Austin, 31-10. The Longhorns found themselves in a saloon type of brawl with the Cowboys, as they entered the fourth quarter with a 10-10 tie, but prevailed to keep hold of their AP top five slot, and they’ll look to avoid slipping up here in Waco. The Texas offense is scoring 34.0 ppg, while passing for 260.3 ypg, rushing for 149.3 ypg, and converting 37.8% of their third downs.

Texas Player Notes

• Quinn Ewers followed up his heroic performance in Tuscaloosa by going 11/21 for 131 passing yards against Wyoming, while producing three touchdowns (2 pass, 1 rush). The sophomore QB avoided the meltdown in last week’s brawl, and after struggling against Baylor in the regular season finale last year, he’ll look to avenge those efforts and deliver on the road again this weekend. Ewers has thrown for 740 yards, with eight touchdowns to no interceptions, and rushed for a pair of scores on the ground through three starts.

• Sophomore back Jonathan Brooks played a big role in the win over Wyoming, gaining a career-high 164 yards on 31 touches to bring his team-lead to 273 rushing yards.

• Junior wideout Xavier Worthy came through with a game-swinging catch and run for a score versus the Cowboys, and he leads UT in receptions (16) and receiving yards (221).

• Third-year tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders missed last week, but he led the Horns with five catches for 114 receiving yards in the win over Bama, and his status should be monitored for this weekend. .

• The Texas defense is allowing 14.6 points per game.

Baylor Bears Preview

Baylor comes in at 1-2 after defeating LIU Brooklyn at home, 30-7. The Bears finally got into the win column after a pair of home losses to Texas State and Utah, and they’ll look to turn things around here against Texas. The Baylor offense is scoring 24.7 ppg, while passing for 251.7 ypg, rushing for 166.3 ypg, and converting 39.5% of their third downs.

Baylor Player Notes

• Sawyer Robertson naturally played better in the win over LIU, protecting the ball, while passing for 113 yards and a score. The sophomore quarterback was thrown into the fire after an injury to returning starter Blake Shapen pushed him to the QB1 spot against a fierce Utah defense, and he’s in for another tough test this weekend with Texas coming to town. Robertson has passed for 444 yards, with a touchdown to three interceptions through three games.

• Baylor has played through a handful of backs, led by Richard Reese and Dominic Richardson. Reese gained 82 yards and scored twice on twelve touches against LIU, while Richardson missed the contest, but he still leads the team with 156 rushing yards.

• Arkansas transfer Ketron Jackson leads the team in receiving through three contests with ten catches for 168 receiving yards.

• The Baylor defense has allowed 23.0 points per game.

Texas vs Baylor Trends

• Texas is 1-2 against the spread, with a 1-2 O/U record.

• Baylor is 0-3 ATS, with a 1-2 over/under record.

• Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games

• Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games

Corey’s Free Pick

Baylor’s quarterback situation will make this a tough spot at home for them, and it’s made it even tougher on the margin for Texas, so initially I like testing the total here. After wrestling with Wyoming last week, Texas will look to rev things up here with a potential duel with Kansas looming next weekend, and the Red River Shootout seven days later, so we should see a sharper offensive approach. Playing at home, Baylor should also be able to contribute to the magic number, as this is a game they always get up for, and still possess a strong ground game. There shouldn’t be too much of an upset alert here, so take the Over for this Lone Star battle.