SMU vs TCU Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) vs SMU Mustangs (2-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Amon G. Carter Stadium)

Betting Odds: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 -- Over/Under: 63.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The SMU Mustangs and TCU Horned Frogs face off on Saturday in a Week 4 college football showdown at Amon G Carter Stadium.

SMU Looks to Build on Last Week

SMU comes into this game with a 2-1 record overall and they were quite impressive in the last game. SMU faced off against Prairie View A&M and they scored 69 points on the way to the blowout victory. Preson Stone had a huge game completing 15 of his 20 passes for 300 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. Running back Cameron Wheaton finished with 16 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. The only loss for SMU came against Oklahoma and even in that game they didn’t look awful.

SMU Betting Trends

SMU has won seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
SMU has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Four of SMU's last five games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Maybe TCU is Good Also?

After TCU lost the first game of the season against Colorado there was a lot of talk about this team not being too good, but they have followed that up with wins over Nicholls State and Houston. TCU scored 36 points against Houston, but even more impressive was the defense giving up only 13 points. In the last game, Chandler Morris completed 24 of his 37 passes for 314 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Running back Emani Bailey also had quite the game rushing 23 times for 126 yards and a touchdown. In this game the defense is going to need to step up in a big way.

TCU Betting Trends

TCU has won nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
TCU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four home games against opponents from the American Athletic Conference.
Fifteen of TCU's last 18 September games at Amon G. Carter Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

SMU vs TCU Facts

TCU ranked 7th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.9).
TCU ranked 7th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (19.0).
SMU ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (9.3).
SMU ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.615).

Shane's Free Pick

I think TCU is good, but SMU is also a good team, and they are going to find success here. SMU is coming off a game where they scored 69 points and they are going to find success scoring again here. Look for SMU to get over 30 points and that is going to be the difference here as the Mustangs are going to keep this game close. I wouldn’t be shocked if SMU wins this game outright, but we will take the points. Back SMU against the spread.