Sam Houston State at Houston Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Houston Cougars (1-2) vs Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 7:00 pm (TDECU Stadium)

Betting Odds: Houston Cougars -14.5 -- Over/Under: 38.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Houston Cougars will host the Sam Houston State Bearkats for a non-conference matchup this Saturday from Houston and Sam Houston have faced off six times over the years, with the Cougars taking the most recent meeting back in 2005, 31-10.

Sam Houston State Bearkats Preview

Sam Houston State enters at 0-2 losing to Air Force at home, 13-3. The Bearkats showed up with another impressive defensive effort, but they got nothing from their offense again, and they’ll look to avoid being blown out here in Houston. The Sam Houston offense is scoring 1.5 ppg, while passing for 95.5 ypg, rushing for 37.0 ypg, and converting 18.5% of their third downs.

SHSU Player Notes

• Keegan Shoemaker had another rough outing against Air Force, going 8/14 for just 44 yards, while getting sacked four times. Sam Houston isn’t an aerial program, but the senior quarterback simply looks outmatched here in FBS action, and he’ll attempt to come out of the bye much stronger. Shoemaker has passed for 191 yards, with zero touchdowns to three interceptions through two starts.

• Sophomore back Zach Hrbacek leads the team with a pedestrian 30 rushing yards through two contests.

• Junior wideouts Noah Smith and Ife Adeyi have both caught six passes, with the former leading the way with 56 yards.

• The Sam Houston defense is allowing 13.5 points per game.

Houston Cougars Preview

Houston comes in 1-2 after losing to TCU at home. The Cougars dropped their first conference game as members of the Big 12 to the in-state Horned Frogs, and they’ll attempt to get back to .500 this weekend. The Houston offense is scoring 23.7 ppg, while passing for 239.3 ypg, rushing for 108.3 ypg, and converting 38.3% of their third downs.

Houston Player Notes

• Donovan Smith had a fit against the TCU defense last week, only going 17/35 for 225 yards, with two interceptions and six sacks taken. The former Texas Tech quarterback did not look like a former Big 12 signal caller last week, and after falling to inner city rival Rice the week prior, he has to feel some pressure to come through in this matchup with a trip to Lubbock looming next weekend. Smith has thrown for 718 yards with four touchdowns to three interceptions, and added 78 yards and three more scores on the ground through three contests.

• The ground game has been pretty non-existent for the Cougs, as sophomore back Stacy Sneed leads the team with just 109 rushing yards.

• Sophomore wideout Samuel Brown has done his part on the outside, surpassing the 100-yard mark in all three games, and he leads Houston in receptions (20) and receiving yards (343).

• The Houston defense has allowed 31 points per game.

Sam Houston State vs Houston Trends

• Sam Houston is 2-0 against the spread, with a 0-2 O/U record.

• Houston is 1-2 ATS, with a 1-2 over/under record.

Corey’s Free Pick

Well it’s quietly safe to say both Houston’s have a few problems early, but this one couldn’t be served up any better for the Cougars. Houston was overpowered by TCU last week, but they won’t have to worry about that this time around, as Sam Houston has looked lost on the offensive side of the ball thru two games of FBS action. The Bearkats inability to convert on third down will likely continue here, and with the Cougars desperately needing to win this game before Big 12 play picks up, I think they come out and lay the points here. The under will be in play due to both Sam Houston’s strong defensive unit and their pedestrian offensive approach, but trust Houston to come through at home here, as they look to avoid a third straight Lone Star loss.