Nevada vs Texas State Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Texas State Bobcats (2-1) vs Nevada Wolf Pack (0-3)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium)

Betting Odds: Texas State Bobcats -17 -- Over/Under: 60.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Nevada Wolf Pack will play the Texas State Bobcats in a non-conference game on Saturday night at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, Texas. Nevada comes into this game looking for their first win of the season, while Texas State has racked up two wins already, with one coming on the road against Baylor. 

Nevada Preview

The Nevada Wolf Pack are 0-3 this season after they lost to Kansas by a score of 31-24 last week. Nevada was tied at 10 at halftime and tied again 24-24 in the fourth quarter, but had a three and out and a turnover on downs with their last two possessions in the game. The Wolf Pack was out gained by a total of 441-258, but did force one turnover in the game. Nevada lost to USC by a score of 66-14 in Week 1 and Idaho by a score of 33-6 in Week 2. The Wolf Pack offense is scoring 14.7 points per game with 190.7 passing yards per game and 104 rushing yards per game, while going 35.4% on third down conversions this year. Brandon Lewis has thrown for 399 yards and one interception, while rushing for 77 yards and two touchdowns for Nevada this season. Sean Dollars has rushed for 119 yards and two scores, while Jamaal Bell has caught 21 passes for 209 yards and one touchdown for Nevada. The Nevada defense is giving up 43.3 points against per game this year.

Texas State Preview

The Texas State Bobcats are 2-1 this season after they defeated Jackson State by a score of 77-34 in their last game. Texas State scored 56 points in the first half and cruised to the easy victory in the second half. The Bobcats out gained Jackson State by a total of 684-400 and forced one turnover in the win. Texas State defeated Baylor by a score of 42-31 in Week 1, but lost to UTSA by a score of 20-13 in their second game. The Texas State offense is averaging 44 points per game with 264.7 passing yards per game and 191 rushing yards per game, while going 36.4% on third downs. TJ Finley has thrown for 760 yards and six touchdowns for the Bobcats this year. Ismail Mahdi has rushed for 183 yards and two scores, while Kole Wilson has caught 13 passes for 184 yards and one touchdown for Texas State. The Bobcats defense is allowing 28.3 points against per game this season. 

Texas State Bobcats Team Facts

  • Texas State has won four of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Texas State has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
  • Texas State has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium.
  • Texas State has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium.
  • Three of Texas State's last four games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

Nevada Wolf Pack Team Facts

  • Nevada has lost each of its last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Nevada has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games in September.
  • Three of Nevada's last four games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Pick

Nevada comes into this game with an 0-3 record, but they did play better in their last game against Kansas. The Wolf Pack were blown out by Idaho, an FCS team, in Week 2, but they bounced back with a much better performance last week. Texas State put up a ton of points and yards against Jackson State and they upset Baylor in Week 1, so they should find success here. While Texas State has looked like the much better team, I am going to take Nevada with the points. I think the Wolf Pack will build on their momentum from last week and will be able to keep this game close, against a Texas State defense that has had some red flags. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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