Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-2) vs Kentucky Wildcats (3-0)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 12:00 pm (FirstBank Stadium)

Betting Odds: Vanderbilt Commodores +13.5 -- Over/Under: 50.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores face off on Saturday in a Week 4 college football showdown at Vanderbilt Stadium.

Kentucky Looks to Impress Again

Kentucky comes into this game with a 3-0 record and they are going to look to pick up another big win here. Kentucky has wins this season over Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron in the last game. The offense has sure looked good, but even more impressive has been what the defense has been able to do. In the last game, quarterback Devin Leary also looked impressive completing 16 of his 26 passes for 315 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Ray Davis has been the top running back and on the season he has 33 carries for 236 yards and three touchdowns.

Kentucky Betting Trends

Kentucky has won each of its last 10 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
The favorite has covered the spread in four of Kentucky's last five games.
Kentucky has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Each of Kentucky's last eight road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.

Will it be a Long Year For Vanderbilt?

It looks like it could be a very long year for Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt was able to beat Hawaii and Alabama A&M in the first two games, but the last two games haven’t been as successful. Two games ago against Wake Forest, they were defeated 36-20 and in the last game against UNLV, they were defeated 40-37. Vanderbilt almost was able to make the comeback late against UNLV scoring 20 points in the 4th quarter, but it wasn’t enough as they fell just short. In the last game, AJ Swann completed 16 of his 35 passes for 296 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

Vanderbilt Betting Trends

Vanderbilt has lost 13 of its last 14 home games against conference opponents.
Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 10 September games at FirstBank Stadium.
Vanderbilt has lost the first half in 12 of its last 14 home games against conference opponents.
Eight of Vanderbilt's last nine games in September have gone OVER the total points line.

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Trends

Vanderbilt suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team last season (3).
Vanderbilt suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team last season (2).
Kentucky ranked 14th among FBS teams for Q3 points allowed per game last season (3.6).
Kentucky ranked 16th among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (4.6).

Shane’s Free Pick

Kentucky is going to have little issues in this game. This is the best team that Kentucky has faced this season, but Kentucky’s defense is going to step up in a big way here. Swann threw one interception in the last game and he’s going to throw at least that here. Vanderbilt’s offense is going to really struggle here and that will be the difference as Kentucky is going to get the job done. Back Kentucky against the spread.