Arkansas vs LSU Prediction - College Football Picks 9/23/23

LSU Tigers (2-1) vs Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Tiger Stadium)

Betting Odds: LSU Tigers -17.5 -- Over/Under: 55 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Arkansas Razorbacks will play the LSU Tigers in a SEC game on Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Arkansas played a very poor game against BYU last week, while LSU blew out Mississippi State on the road. 

Arkansas Preview

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 2-1 this season after they lost to BYU by a score of 38-31 in their last game. Arkansas led this game 14-0 early and 31-21 in the third quarter, but fell apart midway through the third. The Razorbacks turned the ball over on downs, threw an interception, and missed a field goal in the three possessions after taking the 10 point lead. Arkansas out gained BYU by a total of 424-281, but turned the ball over twice and went 1-2 on fourth down. The Razorbacks defeated Western Carolina by a score of 56-13 in Week 1 and beat Kent State by a score of 28-6 in their second game. The Arkansas offense is averaging 38.3 points per game with 219 passing yards per game and 151.3 rushing yards per game, while going 42.5% on third down conversions. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 629 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception, while rushing for 80 yards and one touchdown for Arkansas this year. AJ Green has rushed for 190 yards and two scores, while Andrew Armstrong has caught 18 passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns. The Arkansas defense is giving up 19 points against per game this year. 

LSU Preview

The LSU Tigers are 2-1 this season after they defeated Mississippi State by a score of 41-14 in their last game. LSU scored the first 24 points in this game and cruised to the easy road victory. The Tigers out gained Mississippi State by a total of 530-201 and went 9-16 on third downs in the win. LSU lost to Florida State by a score of 45-24 in their first game, but they blew the doors off of Grambling State by a score of 72-10 in their second game. The LSU offense is averaging 45.7 points per game with 344.3 passing yards per game and 192.7 rushing yards per game, while going 57.5% on third down attempts. Jayden Daniels has thrown for 976 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 157 yards and two scores for LSU this year. Logan Diggs has rushed for 156 yards and one touchdown, while Malik Nabers has caught 24 passes for 393 yards and three scores. The LSU defense is allowing 23 points against per game, but they played very well in their last game. 

LSU Tigers Team Facts

  • LSU has won each of its last six September games at Tiger Stadium.
  • LSU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • LSU has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents at Tiger Stadium.
  • Each of LSU's last six games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Arkansas Razorbacks Team Facts

  • Arkansas has won nine of its last 11 games in September.
  • Arkansas has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games in September.
  • Each of Arkansas' last four road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • LSU ranked 15th among FBS teams for Q3 points allowed per game last season (3.6).
  • LSU ranked T18th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.643).
  • Arkansas ranked T30th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.538).
  • Arkansas ranked 33rd among FBS teams for Q2 points per game last season (10.1).


LSU comes into this game as a pretty big favorite against an Arkansas team that played very poorly last week. Arkansas had plenty of chances to run away with that game against BYU, but poor play calling and turnovers killed their momentum. LSU played a bad second half against Florida State, but they have been dominant in the other five halves they have played. I think LSU will get the win in this game, but I am going to take Arkansas to cover the spread. The Razorbacks do have a solid offensive attack that should keep the game somewhat close. 

David’s Pick Arkansas +17.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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