NC State vs Virginia Prediction - College Football Picks 9/22/23

• Senior RB Jordan Houston hasn’t found much room to run since the Week 1 win over UConn, but he may find success against an inferior UVA defense, and he leads the backfield with 96 rushing yards.

• Freshman receiver Kevin Conception led the team again in receiving with seven catches versus VMI, and he’s first on the team in receptions (16) and receiving yards (122). 

• The N.C. State defense allows 22.2 points per game through three contests.

Virginia Cavaliers Preview

Virginia enters at 0-3 after falling to Maryland in College Park, 42-14. The Cavaliers scored the first fourteen points, then were silenced by their former conference foes for the final three quarters, and they’ll attempt to open ACC play on a positive note. The UVA offense is scoring 20.7 ppg, while passing for 248.7 ypg, rushing for 56.5 ypg, and converting 36.4% of their third downs.

UVA Player Notes

• Anthony Colandrea got the start last Friday against Maryland, and he struggled a bit in his first taste of road action, passing for 263 yards with a touchdown to three picks. The freshman quarterback showed flashes against JMU, and there’s a chance he plays better here at home. Colandrea has passed for 652 yards, with three touchdowns to four interceptions through two starts. 

• UVA hasn’t been able to move the ball well on the ground through three weeks, but veteran back Perris Jones scored against the Terps last week, and he leads the Cavs in rushing yards with a modest 87.

• Wideouts Malachi Fields and Malik Washington have been dynamic on the outside for the Wahoos. Washington leads the Cavs in receiving yards (289), with 18 catches after having a big game against Maryland. Fields is first on the team in receptions (19), with 207 yards.

• The UVA defense has allowed 42.3 points per game through three games.

N.C. State vs Virginia Trends

• N.C. State is 0-3 against the spread, with a 1-2 O/U record. 

• Virginia is 1-2 ATS, with a 3-0 over/under record.

• Virginia has only hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 10 games

Corey’s Free Pick

A non-conference slate full of regional battles didn’t treat Virginia well, and they’ll now have to deal with a familiar face in their ACC opener when Brennan Armstrong and N.C. State come to town. Armstrong left Charlottesville as the Cavaliers’ all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns, so this may serve as a big spot for him on a field he knows very well. The Wolfpack have already picked up a win on the road this season, while the Wahoos have been outmatched in their two Power Five matchups, with the third loss coming to a JMU team set to take over the region. Virginia is in a rebuilding phase, and their struggles will likely roll into conference play, so while I hate to say it, my home state may be a target for the remainder of the season. The Cavs haven’t been able to stop anyone, so the Over may be in play, but let’s trust a motivated Brennan Armstrong and the Wolfpack to come in and cover this Friday.