Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction - College Football Picks 9/22/23

San Diego State Aztecs (2-2) vs Boise State Broncos (1-2)

Game Info: Friday, September 22, 2023 at 10:30 pm (Snapdragon Stadium)

Betting Odds: San Diego State Aztecs +7 -- Over/Under: 45 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Boise State Broncos will play the San Diego State Aztecs in a Mountain West game on Friday night at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California. Boise State was finally able to get their first win of the season last week, while San Diego State has lost two games in a row. 

Boise State Preview

The Boise State Broncos are 1-2 this season after they defeated North Dakota by a score of 42-18 in their last game. Boise State led 21-6 at halftime, but was out scored in the third quarter, before pulling away for the comfortable win. The Broncos out gained North Dakota by a score of 394-183, but they did turn the ball over three times in the game. Boise State opened the season with two losses to Washington (56-19) and UCF (18-16). The Boise State offense is scoring 25.7 points per game with 245.7 passing yards per game and 147.7 rushing yards per game, while going 48.9% on third down conversions. Taylen Green has thrown for 576 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions, while also rushing for 103 yards and one touchdown for Boise State this year. Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 202 yards and four scores, while Eric McAlister has caught 15 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns. The Boise State defense is allowing 30.7 points against per game this season, but has played well in the two games since Washington. 

San Diego State Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs are 2-2 this season after they lost to Oregon State by a score of 26-9 last week. San Diego State trailed 12-3 at halftime and was only able to score six points in the second half. The Aztecs were out gained by a total of 475-326, but they did force two turnovers in the game. San Diego State opened the season with a win over Ohio by a score of 20-13 and Idaho State by a score of 36-28, but lost to UCLA 35-10 in Week 2. The San Diego State offense is scoring 18.8 points per game with 175.3 passing yards per game and 147.8 rushing yards per game, while going 32.1% on third downs. Jalen Mayden has thrown for 701 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions, while rushing for 193 yards and two touchdowns for SDSU. Jaylon Armstead has rushed for 195 yards and two touchdowns, while Mark Redman has caught 16 passes for 179 yards and two scores. The San Diego State defense is giving up 25.5 points against per game this year and they have allowed 26, 35, and 28 points in their last three games.

San Diego State Aztecs Team Facts

  • San Diego State has won four of its last six games as an underdog against Boise State.
  • San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • San Diego State has won the first half in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
  • Four of San Diego State's last five September games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Boise State Broncos Team Facts

  • Boise State has won each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
  • Boise State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as a road favorite.
  • Boise State has won the first half in 21 of its last 27 games against conference opponents.
  • Each of Boise State's last four road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • San Diego State was one of only 14 FBS teams to lose 3+ games when leading at HT last season.
  • San Diego State ranked 15th among FBS teams for Q1 points allowed per game last season (3.7).
  • Boise State ranked T15th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (17.6).
  • Boise State ranked 17th among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (9.6).

Pick

Both of these teams have started the season with two early losses and will look to start Mountain West play off on the right foot with a win here. San Diego State hasn’t been able to produce very much offense in their last two games and they will face a very solid Boise State defense in this game. The Boise State defensive numbers don’t look great, but they are fine when you take the Washington game out. San Diego State has not impressed through four games this season, but I think they are getting too many points at home. Boise State is looking for their first win over a FBS team this season and I think they find it here, but I am taking San Diego State with the points. 

David’s Pick San Diego State +7

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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