Air Force vs San Jose State Prediction - College Football Picks 9/22/23

San Jose State Spartans (1-3) vs Air Force Falcons (3-0)

Game Info: Friday, September 22, 2023 at 10:30 pm (CEFCU Stadium)

Betting Odds: San Jose State Spartans +4.5 -- Over/Under: 47 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Air Force Falcons and San Jose State Spartans face off on Friday in a Week 4 college football showdown at Spartan Stadium.

Air Force Continues to Impress

Air Force has played really well to start the season and they come into this game with a perfect 3-0 record. The only real close game was against Sam Houston State, and they were able to secure the 13-3 victory. In the last game against Utah State, Air Force scored 39 points and that was enough for the easy victory. Running back Owen Burk had a strong game finishing with 15 carries for 110 yards. Air Force is averaging 31.3 points while their defense is giving up 10.3 points per game. The defense is ranked 9th best in the league. Burk has been the top rusher putting up 222 yards and three touchdowns. There have been five different players that have rushed for at least one touchdown.

Air Force Betting Trends

Air Force has won each of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
The underdog has covered the spread in three of Air Force's last four games.
Air Force has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
Air Force has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
Four of Air Force's last five games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

San Jose State Needs Offense to Step Up

San Jose State has lost two of their three games and in the two losses the offense hasn’t stepped up enough. In the first game against Oregon State, they were defeated 42-17 and in the last game against Toledo, they were defeated 21-17. In the one game against Cal Poly, San Jose State scored 59 points and they were able to win by 56. San Jose State is averaging 30.3 points while their defense is giving up 30.5 points per game. The offensive stats are a bit overblown though because of the game. Chevan Cordeiro has thrown for 783 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception.

San Jose State Betting Trends

San Jose State has lost each of its last 11 games as an underdog.
San Jose State has covered the spread in each of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Five of San Jose State's last six September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Air Force vs San Jose State Facts

San Jose State was one of only 11 FBS teams to remain undefeated in home games last season (6-0) (min. 8 games).
San Jose State ranked 17th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.667).
Air Force ranked 2nd among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (6.6).
Air Force ranked 2nd among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.769).

Shane’s Free Pick

San Jose State’s offense has struggled in the two games and they are going to really struggle again in this game. Air Force is averaging 31.3 points and they are going to go even higher than that here. Air Force is a strong offensive team, and they are going to score at least 31 points here. San Jose State’s lack of moving the ball will be the difference as Air Force is going to cover the spread.