San Jose State vs Toledo Prediction - College Football Picks 9/16/23

Toledo Rockets (1-1) vs San Jose State Spartans (1-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 7:00 pm (Glass Bowl)

Betting Odds: Toledo Rockets -7 -- Over/Under: 56.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The San Jose State Spartans will play the Toledo Rockets in a non-conference game on Saturday night at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. San Jose State got their first win of the season in Week 2, after losing their first two games, while Toledo also got in the win column last week. 

San Jose State Preview

The San Jose State Spartans are 1-2 this season after they defeated Cal Poly by a score of 59-3 last week. San Jose State scored the first 38 points in this game and they were able to take their foot off of the gas pedal at the half. The Spartans out gained Cal Poly by a total of 472-169 and forced three turnovers in the win. San Jose State lost to USC by a score of 56-28 in Week 0, while also losing to Oregon State by a score of 42-17 in Week 1. The San Jose State offense is averaging 34.7 points per game with 208.7 passing yards per game and 173.7 rushing yards per game, while going 37.8% on third downs. Chevan Cordeiro has thrown for 546 yards and five touchdowns for the Spartans. Quali Conley has rushed for 202 yards and two scores, while Nick Nash has caught 14 passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns. The San Jose State defense is giving up 33.7 points against per game this year, but they did start the season playing two ranked teams. 

Toledo Preview

The Toledo Rockets are 1-1 this season after they defeated Texas Southern by a score of 71-3 in their last game. Toledo scored 50 points in the first half and absolutely dominated this game from start to finish. The Rockets out gained Texas Southern by a total of 549-238 and forced two turnovers in the win. Toledo lost to Illinois in their first game by a score of 30-28, but definitely played well enough to win. The Toledo offense is averaging 49.5 points per game with 300.5 passing yards per game and 182 rushing yards per game, while going 65.4% on third down attempts. Dequan Finn has thrown for 462 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception for the Rockets this year. Jacques Stuart has rushed for 119 yards and one touchdown, while Junior Vandeross III has caught nine passes for 106 yards. The Toledo defense is allowing 16.5 points against per game this year. 

Toledo Rockets Team Facts

  • Toledo has won 15 of its last 17 September games at Glass Bowl.
  • Toledo has covered the spread in seven of its last nine September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Toledo has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents at Glass Bowl.
  • Toledo has won the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents at Glass Bowl.
  • Three of Toledo's last four games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

San Jose State Spartans Team Facts

  • San Jose State has lost 24 of its last 25 September games as an underdog.
  • San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in 16 of its last 20 September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • San Jose State has lost the first half in three of its last four games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
  • Seven of San Jose State's last eight September games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Toledo ranked 18th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.2).
  • Toledo was one of only 20 FBS teams to win 3+ games when trailing at HT last season.
  • San Jose State was one of only 11 FBS teams to remain undefeated in home games last season (6-0) (min. 8 games).
  • San Jose State ranked 17th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.667).

Pick

Toledo really wasted an opportunity to get a great win against Illinois in Week 1, but they bounce back with a dominant performance last week. San Jose State played two very difficult opponents to open the year, so I am interested to see how they perform against another Group of Five team here. San Jose State did a decent job of putting up points against USC and Oregon State, so I think that unit should be fine in this game. Toledo should also be able to put up points in this game, but I like San Jose State with the points. The Spartans come into this matchup battle tested and I think they will have a chance to win this game late. 

David’s Pick San Jose State +7

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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