New Mexico State at New Mexico Prediction - College Football Picks 9/16/23

New Mexico Lobos (1-1) vs New Mexico State Aggies (1-2)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 8:00 pm (University Stadium)

Betting Odds: New Mexico Lobos -1 -- Over/Under: 51 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The New Mexico State Aggies will make the trip to Albuquerque to face the New Mexico Lobos New Mexico leads the all-time series, 9-4, but New Mexico State took last year’s contest, 21-9.

New Mexico State Aggies Preview

New Mexico State comes in at 1-2 after falling to Liberty in Lynchburg by sixteen, 33-17. The Aggies squandered in the second half, and they’ll look to get back into the win column before their early Week 5 bye. Through three games, the NMSU offense is scoring 35.0 ppg, gaining 265.7 ypg through the air, while rushing for 217.3 yards.

New Mexico State Player Notes

• Diego Pavia dealt with the turnover bug again last week in the loss to Liberty, only going 12/21 for 150 yards, with a touchdown to two costly interceptions. The junior quarterback has struggled in both FBS matchups, but there’s hope he can come out sharp in a return to his hometown of Albuquerque. Pavia has thrown for 715 yards through three contests, with six touchdowns to four interceptions.

• Junior back Star Thomas wasn’t able to get much going against the Flames, and he’s only totaled 229 yards (141 rush, 78 rec) through three games.

• Third-year wideout Trent Hudson has scored in both losses to UMass and Liberty, and he leads the team in receptions (8) for 134 yards.

New Mexico Lobos Preview

New Mexico moved to 1-1 after defeating Tennessee Tech at home by a final score of 56-10. The Lobos took off after the break to blow past the 17-point margin, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into this rivalry spot. Through two games, the UNM offense is scoring 33.0 ppg, while gaining 212.0 ypg through the air, and rushing for 193.5 ypg.

New Mexico Player Notes

• Dylan Hopkins naturally looked better in the win over Tennessee Tech, passing for 273 yards with four scores and an interception. The former UAB quarterback now has a chance to settle in against a respectable opponent with his new school, and there’s a good chance he performs well here.

•Jacory Croskey-Merritt had a big game in the Week 2 win, going for a career-high 162 yards and three scores.

• D.J. Washington leads the team with six catches through two games.

Corey’s Free Pick

I love buying into Diego Pavia showing up in a hometown spot for New Mexico State here. The Aggies come in a bit more battle-tested than the Lobos, and if Pavia can just cut down on the turnovers, they can win this ball game. It’s a nice, profitable spot, so New Mexico State may be worth a shot here.