LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction - College Football Picks 9/16/23

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) vs LSU Tigers (1-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

Betting Odds: Mississippi State Bulldogs +9.5 -- Over/Under: 54.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs face off on Saturday in a Week 3 college football showdown at Davis Wade Stadium. 

LSU Needs to Make A Statement

This might not seem like a very big game for LSU, but this is a game where they need to make a statement. LSU on paper is a whole lot better and they need to try and make the world know they are a lot better than Mississippi State. In the first game of the season, LSU was defeated 45-24 at the hands of Florida State. In the last game against Grambling State, LSU scored 72 points and that was enough for the 62 point victory. In the last game, Jayden McDaniels completed 18 of his 24 passes for 269 yards and five touchdowns. Running back Logan Diggs finished with 15 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown. 

LSU Betting Trends

  • LSU has won seven of its last eight September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • LSU has covered the spread in each of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Nine of LSU's last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.

How Good is Mississippi State?

Mississippi State comes into this game with a 2-0 record, but it’s still hard to know how good this team actually is. In the first game of the season, the Bulldogs beat Southeast Louisiana and they were able to secure the 48-7 victory. In the last game against Arizona, it took overtime, but they were able to secure the 31-24 victory. In the last game, quarterback Will Rogers completed 13 of his 17 passes for 162 yards and three touchdowns. Against Arizona, Mississippi State was up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter but they let Arizona hang around, and they almost lost the game. In this game, if Mississippi State wants to win the game, Rogers is going to need to have a big game. 

Miss State Betting Trends

  • Mississippi State has won eight of its last nine games at Davis Wade Stadium.
  • Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at Davis Wade Stadium.
  • Mississippi State has won the first half in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
  • Each of the last four games between LSU and Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Tigers vs Bulldogs Facts

  • Mississippi State ranked T16th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.615).
  • Mississippi State ranked T23rd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.0).
  • LSU ranked 15th among FBS teams for Q3 points allowed per game last season (3.6).
  • LSU ranked T18th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.643).

Shane’s Free Pick

Mississippi State has won the first two games of the season, but especially in the last game against Arizona I wasn’t impressed. LSU has the x-factor in quarterback Jayden McDaniels and he’s going to have no issue throwing the ball all around the field. Will Rogers is going to have a couple of costly turnovers here and the Bulldogs offense isn’t going to run up the score. Back LSU against the spread. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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