Kansas State vs Missouri Prediction - College Football Picks 9/16/23

Missouri Tigers (2-0) vs Kansas State Wildcats (2-0)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 12:00 pm (Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field)

Betting Odds: Missouri Tigers +4 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Kansas State Wildcats and Missouri Tigers face off on Saturday in a Week 3 college football showdown at Faurot Field.

First Real Test for Kansas State

Kansas State comes into this game with a perfect 2-0 record and they dominated each of their first two games. In Game 1, Kansas State beat Southeast Missouri State 45-0 and in the last game against Troy they were able to secure the 42-13 victory. Will Howard is back under for Kansas State and he has thrown for 547 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Running back DJ Gibbens has also been a key this season rushing 27 times for 180 yards. Treshaun Ward has also rushed 27 times for 114 yards and a touchdown. The defense is going to be tested a lot more than they were in the first game and the defense is going to need to be better here.

Kansas State Betting Trends

Kansas State has won seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Kansas State has covered the spread in each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Kansas State has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
Kansas State has won the first half in three of its last four games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
Six of Kansas State's last seven September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Missouri Needs to Play Better Here

Missouri comes into this game with a 2-0 record overall, but they haven’t really been dominant in either of the games. Missouri scored 35 points against South Dakota, but they should have scored more. In the second game against Middle Tennessee, Missouri almost blew the game late, but ended up holding on for the 23-19 victory. Under center for Missouri is Brady Cook and he completed 14 of his 19 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns. Luther Burden also had a big game finishing with eight catches for 117 yards.

Missouri Betting Trends

Missouri has lost each of its last 10 September games as an underdog.
Missouri has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
Missouri has won the first half in 16 of its last 17 games against non-conference opponents at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.
Missouri has won the first quarter in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.
Each of Missouri's last five games against opponents from the Big 12 Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas State vs Missouri Facts

Missouri ranked T32nd among FBS teams for H1 points allowed per game last season (10.8).
Missouri ranked 39th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game last season (9.6).
Kansas State ranked 9th among FBS teams for H1 points per game last season (20.4).
Kansas State ranked T12th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.643).

Shane’s Free Pick

Neither of these teams have played a good team yet, but there has been one big difference. Kansas State has dominated the first couple of games against lower competition, while Missouri hasn’t been exactly dominant. In this game, Will Howard is going to have another big game, and Kansas State is going to have no issue running up the score here. Missouri is going to struggle against the Kansas State defense and that will be the difference as Kansas State gets the job done.