Bowling Green vs Michigan Prediction - College Football Picks 9/16/23

Michigan Wolverines (2-0) vs Bowling Green Falcons (1-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Michigan Stadium)

Betting Odds: Michigan Wolverines -40.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Bowling Green Falcons and Michigan Wolverines face off on Saturday in a Week 3 college football showdown at Michigan Stadium.

Bowling Green’s Offense Needs to Step Up

Bowling Green comes into this game with a 1-1 record overall but they looked good in the first game. In the first game against Liberty, Bowling Green’s defense gave up 34 points and that led to the 10 point defeat. In the last game against Eastern Illinois, Bowling Green’s offense scored 38 points and that was enough for the blowout victory. Under center for Bowling Green is Connor Bazelak and in the last game he completed 23 of his 28 passes for 319 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Terion Stewart also finished with 51 yards and two touchdowns.

Bowling Green Betting Trends

Bowling Green has lost 13 of its last 14 road games in September.
Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
Bowling Green has lost the first half in each of its last three road games against non-conference opponents.
Seven of Bowling Green's last eight games against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Michigan’s Defense is Elite

Michigan has had little issues in the first two games of the season and the offense has been good, but most impressive has been the defense. Against East Carolina in the first game they gave up only three points and in the last game agianst UNLV they gave up only seven. They only allowed 168 yards through the air in the last game and the top rusher only had 23 yards. Under center for Michigan is JJ McCarthy and he has thrown for 558 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Michigan Betting Trends

Michigan has won each of its last 24 home games in September.
Michigan has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams at Michigan Stadium.
Michigan has won the first quarter in each of its last seven games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
Michigan has won the first half in each of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Michigan Stadium.
Eleven of Michigan's last 12 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Michigan Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Bowling Green vs Michigan Facts

Michigan ranked 1st among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.929).
Michigan ranked 2nd among FBS teams for Q3 win percentage last season (.786).

Shane’s Free Pick

This total is too high. Michigan is an elite defensive team and they are going to have no issue slowing down the Bowling Green attack. Look for Bowling Green to finish with six points or less here. Michigan’s offense is going to be good again, but they aren’t going to go over 42 points here, and that is going to be enough to keep this game under the total. Back the under here.