Alabama vs USF Prediction - College Football Picks 9/16/23

USF Bulls (1-1) vs Alabama Crimson Tide (1-1)

Game Info: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 3:30 pm (Raymond James Stadium)

Betting Odds: USF Bulls +33 -- Over/Under: 61.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Alabama Crimson Tide and South Florida Bulls face off on Saturday in a Week 3 college football showdown at Raymond James Stadium.

Alabama Looks to Bounce Back

We are only three weeks into the college football season, but Alabama basically has to go perfect the rest of the way if they want to make the college football playoffs. In the first game of the season, Alabama was able to beat Middle Tennessee. In the last game against Texas though, the offense only scored 24 points, and that led to the 10 point defeat. They were outscored 21-8 in the 4th quarter, and they really blew the game late. Under center for Alabama is Jalen Milore and against Texas he completed 14 of his 27 passes for 255 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Milroe needs to clean up the turnovers, and he needs to clean them up quickly.

Alabama Betting Trends

Alabama has won 29 of its last 30 games in September.
Alabama has covered the spread in five of its last six September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
Each of Alabama's last four games have gone OVER the total points line.

Can South Florida’s Defense Step Up?

South Florida comes into this game with a 1-1 record and in both games the offense has been a major issue. In the first game against Western Kentucky, South Florida scored only 24 points while the defense gave up 41 points. In the last game against Florida A&M, South Florida scored 38 points which was good, but the defense still gave up 24 points, and that defense has to be a concern. Under center for South Florida is Byrum Brown and in the last game he completed 20 of his 34 passes for 197 yards and three touchdowns. Naiem Simmons caught three passes for 59 yards and a touchdown.

South Florida Betting Trends

South Florida has lost each of its last 10 September games against AP-ranked teams.
South Florida has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.
South Florida has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Raymond James Stadium.
Each of South Florida's last six September games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Alabama vs South Florida Facts

South Florida ranked 8th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (9.8).
South Florida ranked T28th among FBS teams for H2 points per game last season (16.0).
Alabama ranked 4th among FBS teams for points per game last season (41.1).
Alabama ranked T5th among FBS teams for Q2 win percentage last season (.769).

Shane’s Free Pick

This game is going to come down to the Alabama offense against the South Florida defense. This South Florida defense is bad, not only are they bad they are really bad. Alabama is going to bounce back in a big way from their Texas game and their offense is going to have no issue running up the score here. This is game where it wouldn’t shock me if Alabama put up 70 points. Alabama is going to want to make a statement and that’s exactly what they are going to do in this game. South Florida isn’t going to be keeping up. Back Alabama against the spread.